|Week Close: |
|+ (-)||%||Aug %|
Markets finish August strong, but loose for the week heading into the Labor Day holiday.
The S&P roller coaster last week: Down, up, up, down a lot, and down.
Fed: The most recent Beige Book was released last Wednesday. Overall economic activity was modest and well below pre Covid levels. The Cleveland region (#4/12) grew modestly: Staff levels changed little; wages were steady; costs for materials grew somewhat and were passed on to customers, prices went up for vehicles and homes.
ISM: Manufacturing came in at 56.0; services came in at 56.9. Over “50” is considered good or an expansion.
Jobless claims: They came in at 881,000. That’s only the second time in 23 weeks the number hasn’t been above 1,000,000.
Jobs: Expectations for August jobs number were 1,400,000; the actual number came in close at 1,371,000.
PCE: The inflation number the Fed uses is the PCE or the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price index. The July results were released last Monday (8/31) and came in at +1.0%.
Unemployment: Last month (July) was 10.2%. Expectations for this month (August) were a drop down to 9.8%. The actual number was much better, dropping down to 8.4%... a positive surprise. It was ignored by the Markets last Friday.
Focus of the week: Tech is dropping fairly strongly for the third straight session, and that’s causing Markets to drop overall. It’s a holiday shortened week, so we’ll be looking to see if this downward direction will end or move toward an actual correction.
Inflation: We got the PCE update last Monday. The PPI and CPI will give us the final numbers to show us where we stand. YOY the consumer number has been at +1%, with the wholesale number at -0.4%.
Indicator focus: PPI, jobless claims (Thu); CPI (Fri).