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M Notes:    Tue, 9-8 Thumbnail

M Notes: Tue, 9-8




Week Close:
 9-4
+ (-)%Aug %
Dow28,133-297-1.0%+7.6%
S&P3,427-73-2.1%+7.0%
Nasdaq11,313-462-3.9%+9.6%


LAST WEEK:

Markets finish August strong, but loose for the week heading into the Labor Day holiday.    

The S&P roller coaster last week:  Down, up, up, down a lot, and down. 

Fed The most recent Beige Book was released last Wednesday.  Overall economic activity was modest and well below pre Covid levels.  The Cleveland region (#4/12) grew modestly:  Staff levels changed little; wages were steady; costs for materials grew somewhat and were passed on to customers, prices went up for vehicles and homes.   

ISM:  Manufacturing came in at 56.0; services came in at 56.9.  Over “50” is considered good or an expansion.   

Jobless claims:  They came in at 881,000.  That’s only the second time in 23 weeks the number hasn’t been above 1,000,000.    

Jobs:  Expectations for August jobs number were 1,400,000; the actual number came in close at 1,371,000.   

PCE:  The inflation number the Fed uses is the PCE or the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price index.  The July results were released last Monday (8/31) and came in at +1.0%. 

Unemployment Last month (July) was 10.2%.  Expectations for this month (August) were a drop down to 9.8%.   The actual number was much better, dropping down to 8.4%... a positive surprise.  It was ignored by the Markets last Friday.

 

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THIS WEEK:

Focus of the week:  Tech is dropping fairly strongly for the third straight session, and that’s causing Markets to drop overall.  It’s a holiday shortened week, so we’ll be looking to see if this downward direction will end or move toward an actual correction. 

Inflation:  We got the PCE update last Monday.  The PPI and CPI will give us the final numbers to show us where we stand.  YOY the consumer number has been at +1%, with the wholesale number at -0.4%.   

Indicator focus PPI, jobless claims (Thu); CPI (Fri).