M Notes: Tue, 3-16

LAST WEEK:

Markets:  The focus on Oil caused Markets to retract last week.  

S&P roller coaster last week:  Up a lot, Down, Down a touch, Down significantly, and Down.

Durable Goods:   Orders, coming off a -1.4% in December, were Flat in January.  

Fed Balance Sheet:  $6.64 Trillion.  

GDP:  The second read on Q4 GDP was only +0.7%, down from the first read of +1.4%.  

Housing:  Starts were up +7.2% in January, and were up +9.5% Y/Y.  Existing Homes Sales were up +1.7% in January, but were down -1.4% Y/Y.  

Inflation:  Consumer Inflation, the CPI, was up +0.3% in February.  The CPI remained at +2.4% Y/Y.  The metric the Federal Reserve watches is the PCE, which runs a month behind the other Inflation metrics.  The PCE was up +0.4% in January, and was up +2.8% Y/Y (down a tick).  

Metals:  Gold finished the week at $5,023.  Silver finished the week at $81.

National Debt:  $38.89 Trillion.   

Oil:  We started the year with the price of a barrel of Oil (WTI) ranging in the $50’s and $60’s in January and February.  Now in March that number is in the $90’s (with intraday spikes above $100).   Why?  Uncertainty.  When the Straight of Hormuz issue gets resolved, one would think the price of Oil will drop.  

Trade Deficit:  It was -$54 Billion in January.  Over the last year Exports are up +10.4%, while Imports are down -11.3%.  

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THIS WEEK:

Focus of the week:  The Fed Meeting.  The FOMC’s second meeting of the year starts Tuesday.  Their meeting statement will come out Wednesday afternoon, followed by the Fed Chairman’s press conference.  This will be Jerome Powell’s second to last FOMC meeting as the Fed Chair.  

Calendar:   Retail sales, Industrial Production (Mon); Housing Starts (Tue); the PPI, Fed meeting statement, Fed Chair press conference (Wed); and New Home Sales (Thu).

Earnings:  The current Earnings Season is almost done.  Some of the companies reporting this week:  Accenture, FedEx, and Lululemon.  

* The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.    The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks.  The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System.  Yahoo! Finance, the Wall Street Journal, Investor’s Business Daily and Barron’s are several of the sources used for financial information. 

* The National Debt figure comes from usdebtclock.org.   

* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.  Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.  You cannot invest directly in an index.   Past performance does not guarantee future results. No strategy can assure a profit or protect against a loss.  Investments in the securities markets involve risk, such as loss of your principal.