M Notes: Tue, 2-18

LAST WEEK:

Markets:  Other than dropping a touch on Wednesday due to Inflation data, Markets were up last week.  

S&P roller coaster last week:  Up, Up a touch, Down, Up a lot, and Flat.  

Fed Balance Sheet:  $6.814 Trillion.  

Industrial production:  The December number was revised up slightly from +0.9% up to +1.0%.  The January number beat the consensus of +0.3%, coming in at +0.5%.  

Inflation:  Consumer Inflation rose a tick from 2.9% up to 3.0% Y/Y (the CPI).  Wholesale Inflation rose from 3.3% up to 3.5% Y/Y (the PPI). 

Jobless claims:  The weekly number came in at 213,000.  The four-week average came in at 216,000.

National Debt:  $36.495 Trillion.  

Powell:  Fed Chair Jerome Powell made his bi-annual appearance before Congress last week.  On Tuesday Powell appeared before the Senate, and then on Wednesday he appeared before the House.  As you might expect, many Democrats took their time to speak against Trump policies and actions, while most Republicans took their time to speak in favor of Trump policies and action.  The pontificating by the politicians didn’t surprise me.  What I took note of:  I watched a good chunk of Powell’s testimony before the Senate.  He was much more measured in his tone regarding Trump.  Make no mistake, they still don’t like each other.  But Powell didn’t take any of the bait Democrats gave him to lash out against Trump.   He just kept saying he wouldn’t comment about the President’s words or actions.  

Retail sales:  The December number was revised upward from +0.4% up to +0.7%.  The January number missed the consensus of -0.1%, coming in at -0.9%.   

Tariffs:  President Trump said he would implement “Reciprocal” Tariffs.  Meaning:  Trump will match any Tariff placed on United States goods by foreign countries.  And he repeated his offer for “No Tariffs”… if those foreign goods made in the U.S.

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THIS WEEK:

Focus of the week:   The Fed.  It will come on Wednesday afternoon (2pm) when the Minutes from the most recent FOMC Meeting are released.  Just how long is the Fed looking to pause their downward movement on their Interest Rate?  We hope to get a clearer answer tomorrow afternoon.  

Calendar:  Holiday (Mon); Fed Minutes, housing starts (Wed); jobless claims (Thu); and existing home sales (Fri).

Earnings:  Some of the companies reporting this week:  Airbus, HSBC, Medtronic, Southern Company, and Walmart.  

Holiday:  Markets were closed in the U.S. on Monday in observance of President’s Day.