M Notes: Mon, 9/29

LAST WEEK:

Markets:  Markets paused a touch last week.  But we’re still near record highs.   

S&P roller coaster last week:  Up, Down, Down, Down, and Up.

Durable Goods:   In July, the read on Durable Goods came in at -2.8%.  The consensus for August was a -0.5% number.  The actual number surprised, coming in at +2.9%.

Fed Balance Sheet:  $6.608 Trillion.  

GDP:  The Final read on Q2 QDP rose more than expected.    The second read was +3.3%, while the Final read came in at +3.8%. 

Housing:  New Home Sales were up a surprising +20.5% in August, and were up +15.4% Y/Y.  Existing Home Sales were down -0.2% in August, but were up +1.8% Y/Y.  Two weeks ago, Starts were down -8.5% in August, and were down -6.0% Y/Y.   

Inflation:  The Inflation metric the Federal Reserve focuses on is the PCE.  In August, the PCE rose +0.3% (as expected).  The PCE, on a Y/Y basis, thru August rose from +2.6% up a tick to +2.7% (as expected).   

Jobless claims:  The weekly number came in at 218,000.  The four-week average came in at 237,000. 

National Debt:  $37.421 Trillion.  (It’s going up about $28-30 Billion/week.)

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THIS WEEK:

Focus of the week:  Jobs & Unemployment.  Coming off of a very low 22,000 Jobs number in August, the consensus for September is only 50,000 new Jobs.  The U3 Unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%.   

Calendar:   ADP employment report, the ISM Manufacturing index (Wed); Factory orders, jobless claims (Thu); the ISM Services index, and the new Jobs & Unemployment numbers (Fri).  

* The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.    The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks.  The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System.  Yahoo! Finance, the Wall Street Journal, Investor’s Business Daily and Barron’s are several of the sources used for financial information. 

* The National Debt figure comes from usdebtclock.org.   

* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.  Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.  You cannot invest directly in an index.   Past performance does not guarantee future results. No strategy can assure a profit or protect against a loss.  Investments in the securities markets involve risk, such as loss of your principal.