M Notes: Mon, 9-8

	Week Close: 9-5-25	+ (-)	%
Dow	45,401	-144	-0.3%
S&P	6,481	+21	+0.3%
Nasdaq	21,700	+245	+1.1%
10-year	4.08	-0.15	-3.5%
Oil	64.01	-2.00	-3.1%

LAST WEEK:

Markets:  They were a bit mixed last week.  

S&P roller coaster last week:  Holiday, Down, Up, Up, and Down.

Factory Orders:   Coming off of a -4.8% month (July), factory orders were only down -1.3% in August.  

Fed Balance Sheet:  $6.602 Trillion. 

Fed Beige Book:   Overall, the was little change in economic activity across the country in the last period.  The 4th District (Cleveland) was economic activity increase slightly.  

GDP:  Q2 GDP was revised up from +3.0%, to +3.3% in the second read.

ISM:  The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing index rose from 48.0 (July) up to 48.7 in August.  Manufacturing represents about 30% of the US economy.   ISM’s Services index rose from 50.1 (July) up to 52.0 in August.  Numbers below 50 represent contraction, while numbers above 50 represent expansion.  

Jobless claims:  The weekly number came in at 237,000.  The four-week average came in at 231,000.

Jobs:  The Jobs number missed the expected 80,000, coming in at only 22,000.  

National Debt:  $37.334 Trillion.  (It’s going up about $28-30 Billion/week.)

Trade Deficit:  It came in at -74 billion for July.  

Unemployment:  The U3 August Unemployment number rose from 4.2% up to 4.3%, as expected.  

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THIS WEEK:

Focus of the week:  Inflation.   Wholesale Inflation (the PPI) is expected to remain the same, at 3.3% Y/Y.  Consumer Inflation (the CPI) is expected to rise from 2.7% up to 2.9% Y/Y.  

Calendar:   The PPI (Wed); the CPI, and jobless claims (Thu).

* The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.    The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks.  The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System.  Yahoo! Finance, the Wall Street Journal, Investor’s Business Daily and Barron’s are several of the sources used for financial information. 

* The National Debt figure comes from usdebtclock.org.   

* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.  Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.  You cannot invest directly in an index.   Past performance does not guarantee future results. No strategy can assure a profit or protect against a loss.  Investments in the securities markets involve risk, such as loss of your principal.