M Notes: Mon, 8-3
| Weekly close: 7-31-26 | + (-) | % | July % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dow | 52,485 | +538 | +1.0% | +0.3% |
S&P | 7,490 | +78 | +1.1% | -0.1% |
Nasdaq | 25,374 | +398 | +1.6% | -3.2% |
| R2000 | 2,931 | +1 | +0.0% | -3.1% |
10-year | 4.72 | +0.04 | +0.9% | +5.6% |
Oil | 86.80 | -3.26 | -3.6% | +23.9% |
LAST WEEK:
Markets: AI and Iran news… again. A volatile upward week.
S&P roller coaster last week: Up a touch, Up, Down significantly, Up significantly, and Up a lot.
Durable Goods Orders: New Orders were up +0.3% in June.
Fed Balance Sheet: $6.74 Trillion.
Fed Meeting: No interest rate changes. The FOMC’s rate remains at 3.50%-3.75%. The vote was 9-3. Three dissents wanted a ¼ point increase in their rate (including the Cleveland Fed President). During his press conference Fed Chair Kevin Warsh stressed that the Fed’s 2.0% Inflation target is a real target not a guideline. But as I was watching the press conference, there was a specific moment that caught my attention. With the second to last question, Reuter’s Ann Saphir (a seasoned Fed reporter), showed her impatience about Inflation asking, “Why haven’t you done anything?” I don’t believe she asked that question to Jerome Powell, with that tone, over the last 2-3 years. Warsh responded: he understands the frustration the American people have with Inflation. His team has only been in place a little over eight weeks. They are looking at it, to make sure they have the right data. And that they will “land the plane”. It appears Warsh’s honeymoon only lasted one meeting.
GDP: The first read on Q2 GDP missed expectations. Coming off of Q1’s +2.1%, expectations were for +2.3%. The actual number came in at +1.5%.
Inflation: New data from the PCE showed Inflation came down over the last month. The Y/Y number in May was 4.1%. That number dropped to 3.7% in June.
Metals: Gold finished the week at $4,099. Silver finished the week at $58.
National Debt: $39.72 Trillion.
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THIS WEEK:
Focus of the week: Jobs and Unemployment. The July Jobs number is expected to be about 90,000. The Unemployment number is expected to remain at 4.2%.
Calendar: ISM’s July Manufacturing index (Mon); June’s Trade Deficit (Tue); and July’s Jobs and Unemployment numbers (Fri).
Earnings: Some of the companies reporting this week: Advanced Micro Devices, Amgen, Berkshire Hathaway, BP, Caterpillar, ConocoPhillips, CVS, Disney, Eli Lilly, Marriott, McDonald’s
* The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. Yahoo! Finance, the Wall Street Journal, Investor’s Business Daily and Barron’s are several of the sources used for financial information.
* The National Debt figure comes from usdebtclock.org.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance. Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. You cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results. No strategy can assure a profit or protect against a loss. Investments in the securities markets involve risk, such as loss of your principal.