M Notes: Mon, 8-10

LAST WEEK:

Markets:  S&P500 hit a record close last Friday.

S&P roller coaster last week:  Up significantly, Up significantly, Down, Down, and Up.    

Fed Balance Sheet:  $6.75 Trillion.   

ISM: The Institute for Supply Management publishes two metrics each month.  Their Manufacturing index (30% of the US economy) rose from 53.3 in June to 55.6 in July.  Consensus was for 54.0.  Their Services index (70% of the US economy) went up a tick from 54.0 in June to 54.1 in July.  Consensus was for 54.5.  A number below 50 suggests a contraction of the economy, while a number above 50 suggests an expansion of the economy.   

Jobs:  The June number was +57,000, dropping to -23,000 in July.  Consensus was for +88,000.  Some have wondered if this negative number is associated with the end of the World Cup.   Even with the negative number, those that want the Fed to hike their interest rate feel the Fed missed an opportunity to raise in their last meeting.  And those folks are still calling for hikes, regardless of the lower Inflation read last month. Regardless of the negative Jobs number.  While some may not admit it, there could be politics involved here.  Some want the economy to do well before the Mid-Term Elections, while others might want to see the economy pull back in that timeframe.   

Metals:  Gold finished the week at $4,399.  Silver finished the week at $64. 

National Debt:  $39.75 Trillion.    

Trade Deficit:  The May number was about -$78 billion, dropping to about -$73 billion in June. 

Unemployment:  The July number dropped a tick from 4.2%, down to 4.1%.  

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THIS WEEK:

Focus of the week:  Inflation.  Wednesday’s CPI (consumer Inflation) is expected to drop a tick from 3.5% down to 3.4%.  Thursday’s PPI (wholesale Inflation) is expected to drop from 5.5% down to  

Calendar:  Existing Home Sales (Tue); the CPI (Wed); the PPI (Thu); and Retail Sales (Fri).   

Earnings:  Some of the companies reporting this week:  Applied Materials, and Cisco

* The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.    The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks.  The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System.  Yahoo! Finance, the Wall Street Journal, Investor’s Business Daily and Barron’s are several of the sources used for financial information. 

* The National Debt figure comes from usdebtclock.org.   

* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.  Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.  You cannot invest directly in an index.   Past performance does not guarantee future results. No strategy can assure a profit or protect against a loss.  Investments in the securities markets involve risk, such as loss of your principal.