M Notes: Mon, 6-2

	Week Close: 5-30-25	+ (-)	%	May%
Dow	42,270	+667	+1.6%	+3.9%
S&P	5,912	+109	+1.9%	+6.2%
Nasdaq	19,114	+377	+2.0%	+9.6%
10-year	4.40	-0.11	-2.4%	+5.3%
Oil	60.79	-0.92	-1.5%	+4.4%

LAST WEEK:

Markets:  April showers bring May flowers.  Okay, maybe that analogy doesn’t totally work, but May was a good month for Markets.

S&P roller coaster last week:  Holiday, Up significantly, Down, Up, and Dow a fraction.  

Durable goods orders:  Orders dropped -6.3% in April, but were up +3.2% Y/Y.

Fed Balance Sheet:  $6.673 Trillion.  

Fed Minutes:  Citing concerns over fiscal and trade policy, the Fed focused on their cautious approach to lowering their interest rate.

GDP:  The revision saw Q1 a tick better than the prior read, coming in at -0.2% (instead of -0.3%).  

Inflation:  The Personal Consumption & Expenditures index (the PCE) is the Inflation metric the Fed focuses on.  The April PCE Y/Y dropped from 2.3% down to 2.1% Y/Y. 

Jobless claims:  The weekly number came in at 240,000.  The four-week average came in at 231,000.

National Debt:  $36.928 Trillion.  (It’s going up about $29-30 Billion/week.)

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THIS WEEK:

Focus of the week:  Jobs & Unemployment.  The range for the May Jobs number is 100,000 to 190,000, with Consensus about 130,000.   Unemployment (the U3) is expected to remain at 4.2%.

Calendar:  The ISM’s Manufacturing index  (Mon); Factory orders (Tue); ADP employment report (Wed); the second read on the April Trade Deficit, jobless claims (Thu), and the new Jobs & Unemployment numbers (Fri).

Earnings:  The current season is pretty much over.  Some of the companies reporting this week:   Broadcom, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Hewlett Packard, and lululemon.  

 

* The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.    The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks.  The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System.  Yahoo! Finance, the Wall Street Journal, Investor’s Business Daily and Barron’s are several of the sources used for financial information. 

* The National Debt figure comes from usdebtclock.org.   

* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.  Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.  You cannot invest directly in an index.   Past performance does not guarantee future results. No strategy can assure a profit or protect against a loss.  Investments in the securities markets involve risk, such as loss of your principal.