M Notes: Mon, 5-5

	Week Close: 5-2-25	+ (-)	%	Apr %
Dow	41,317	+1,204	+3.0%	-3.2%
S&P	5,687	+1621	+2.9%	-0.8%
Nasdaq	17,978	+595	+3.4%	+0.8%
10-year	4.31	+0.05	+1.2%	-1.6%
Oil	58.48	-4.76	-7.5%	-18.6%

LAST WEEK:

Markets:  The Rebound continued last week.   

S&P roller coaster last week:  Up a touch, Up, Up, Up, and Up significantly.   

Fed Balance Sheet:  $6.709 Trillion.   

GDP:  The first read on Q1 GDP came in at -0.3%.   

Inflation:  The Inflation metric the Federal Reserve watches the most is the PCE.  It grew M/M for March +0.5%.  The Y/Y numbers was revised from +2.5% up to +2.7% for February.    The March number dropped to +2.3%.    

ISM:  The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing index dropped a touch from March’s 49.0 read, down to 48.7%.   

Jobless claims:  The weekly number came in at 241,000.  The four-week average came in at 226,000. 

Jobs:  The April Jobs number beat expectations (+125,000) coming in at 177,000. 

National Debt:  $36.810 Trillion.  (It’s going up about $29 Billion/week.) 

Trade deficit:  The first read on March’s Trade Deficit was -$162 Billion.  Imports were up +5.0%, while exports were up +1.2%.   

Unemployment:  The U3 (the 3rd of 6 unemployment numbers published monthly) remained at 4.2%.   

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THIS WEEK:

Focus of the week:  The Fed Meeting.  This will be the third FOMC meeting of the year.  Will the Fed lower interest rates?  We’ll find out Wednesday afternoon. 

Calendar:   ISM Services index (Mon); Trade Deficit (Tue); Fed Meeting announcement, Fed Chair press conference (Wed); and Jobless Claims (Thu). 

Earnings:  Some of the companies reporting this week:   Advanced Micro Devices, AnheuserBusch InBev, ARM, ConocoPhillips, Disney, DoorDash, Ferrari, Nintendo, Shopify, Transdigm, and Uber.