M Notes: Mon, 4-7

	Week Close: 4-4-25	+ (-)	%	March %
Dow	38,315	-3,269	-7.9%	-4.2%
S&P	5,074	-507	-9.1%	-5.7%
Nasdaq	15,588	-1,735	-10.0%	-8.2%
10-year	4.00	-0.25	-5.9%	+0.5%
Oil	62.32	-6.80	-9.8%	+2.5%

LAST WEEK:

Markets:  Trump’s Liberation Day, was followed by two significant Liquidation Days.  Make sure you listen to my latest Radio segment with Bill Wills (below).   

S&P roller coaster last week:  Up, Up, Up, Down significantly, and Down significantly.

Fed Balance Sheet:  $6.723 Trillion.  

ISM:  Their Manufacturing index dropped to 49.0 in March, while their Services index came in at 50.8.  Numbers above 50 imply an expansion of the Economy, while numbers below 50 imply a contraction of the Economy.  

Jobless claims:  The weekly number came in at 219,000.  The four-week average came in at 223,000.

Jobs:  Mixed message here.  The February numbers were revised down from 151,000 to 117,000.  But the March numbers easily beat the consensus of 130,000, coming in at 228,000.  

National Debt:  $36.694 Trillion.  

Radio:  After joining Bill Wills (on 1100AM – WTAM) most Friday mornings for 15 years, I’m now on Quarterly.  The latest installment was last Friday.  As you might have guessed, the Topics were all about Tariffs.  Go to the Podcast page to listen to it.

Trade deficit:  In the second read on February’s Trade Deficit, it came in at -123 Billion.  That’s over $50 Billion higher than a year ago.   

Unemployment:  The U3 number ticked up a touch from 4.1% to 4.2%.  

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THIS WEEK:

Focus of the week:   Tariffs (obviously).  As clarity comes, understanding what Tariff is a negotiating tool and what Tariff is a real Tariff, Markets should adjust better.   Until then, in the short term, it will remain a bit rocky.  

Calendar:   Fed Minutes (Wed); CPI, jobless claims (Thu); and the PPI (Fri).

Earnings:  A new earnings season gets underway this week.  Some of the companies reporting:  Blackrock, JPMorgan Chase, Progressive, and Well Fargo.  

Inflation:  Consumer Inflation (the CPI) is expected to drop from 2.8% to 2.6% Y/Y.