M Notes: Mon, 4-6
| Week Close: 4-3-25 | + (-) | % | Mar % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dow | 46,505 | -1,477 | -3.0% | -5.4% |
| S&P | 6,583 | -139 | -2.0% | -5.1% |
| Nasdaq | 21,879 | -280 | -1.2% | -4.8% |
| R2000 | 2,530 | -107 | -4.1% | -5.2% |
| 10-year | 4.35 | +0.19 | +4.8% | +9.4% |
| Oil | 111.54 | +24.23 | +36.1% | +51.4% |
LAST WEEK:
Markets: March was tough.
S&P roller coaster last week: Down, Up really significantly, Up, Up a touch, and Holiday.
Fed Balance Sheet: $6.68 Trillion.
Good Friday: US Markets were closed in observance of Good Friday.
ISM: The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing index rose a bit from February’s 52.4 number, up to 52.7 in March. A number below 50 implies an economic contracting in Manufacturing, while a number above 50 implies an economic expansion.
Jobs: Good number. Coming off of a -92,000 number February, the March number rebounded with 178,000 jobs. The Consensus was for only 50,000 jobs.
Metals: Gold finished the week at $4,703. Silver finished the week at $73.
National Debt: $39.08 Trillion.
Oil: Through last Friday, Oil is up 94% this year.
Retail Sales: Coming off a -0.2% number in January, Retail Sales came in at a +0.6% number in February (beating the consensus of +0.4%). RS are up +3.7% Y/Y.
Trade Deficit: The February Deficit was -$57 Billion. Expectations was for it to be a bit over -$60 Billion. Imports are down -$7.1 Billion, while Exports are up +$12.2 Billion Y/Y.
Unemployment: The U3 Unemployment rate dropped a tick in March, from 4.4% down to 4.3%.
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THIS WEEK:
Focus of the week: Inflation. Yes, our attention still gets diverted to Oil and what’s going on in the Middle East (hopefully the Cease Fire deal works). But we get two Inflation reads this week: the PCE on Thursday, the CPI on Friday. And we get the Federal Reserve’s read on Inflation, from the Minutes of their most recent meeting three weeks ago.
Calendar: ISM’s Services index (Mon); Durable Goods orders (Tue); the Fed’s FOMC Minutes (Wed); GDP, the PCE (Thu); and the CPI (Fri).
Radio: On the Monday after a new Jobs report, I’m on the Radio with Bill Wills. Which means… I was on the Radio this morning. You can check it out, on my website, in the Bill & Chris Podcasts section.
* The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. Yahoo! Finance, the Wall Street Journal, Investor’s Business Daily and Barron’s are several of the sources used for financial information.
* The National Debt figure comes from usdebtclock.org.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance. Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. You cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results. No strategy can assure a profit or protect against a loss. Investments in the securities markets involve risk, such as loss of your principal.