M Notes: Mon, 3-3
| Weekly Close: 2-28-25 | + (-) | % | Jan % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dow30 | 43,841 | +413 | +1.0% | -1.6% |
| S&P500 | 5,954 | -59 | -1.0% | -1.4% |
| Nasdaq | 18,847 | -677 | -3.5% | -4.0% |
| 10-year | 4.23 | -0.20 | -4.5% | -7.4% |
| Oil | 69.76 | -0.49 | -0.7% | -3.8% |
LAST WEEK:
Markets: With most of the focus centered on the heated exchange in the Oval Office Friday between President Trump and President Zelensky, Markets rallied Friday afternoon. Overall, Markets were down a touch in February.
S&P roller coaster last week: Down, Down, Up a touch, Down significantly, and Up significantly.
Durable goods: Coming off of a -2.2% read in December (adjusted to -1.8%), the expectations for January was +1.9%. The actual number came in much higher at +3.1%. Orders were up +3.4% Y/Y.
Fed Balance Sheet: $6.766 Trillion.
GDP: The second read on Q4 GDP remained at +2.3%.
Housing: Last week New Home sales dropped -10.5% in January and were down -1.1% Y/Y. Two weeks ago, Starts dropped -9.8% in January and were down -0.7% Y/Y; and Existing home sales dropped -4.9% in January, but were up +2.0% Y/Y.
Inflation: The Inflation metric the Federal Reserve focuses on it the Personal Consumption & Expenditures index (the PCE). It moved down a tick from 2.6%, to 2.5% in January, Y/Y. However, the M/M number went from 0.4% up to 0.9% (much higher than expected).
Jobless claims: The weekly number came in at 242,000. The four-week average came in at 224,000.
National Debt: $36.549 Trillion.
Tariffs: On Sunday, Warren Buffett, a critic of President Trump, said that Tariffs are “an act of war, to some degree”, during an interview with CBS News’ Norah O’Donnell. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that China will likely absorb any Tariffs applied to them. A Tariff of 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada goes into effect on Tuesday, March 4th. An additional 10% Tariff will be added to the 10% placed on Chinese goods last month.
Trade deficit: The first read on the January Trade Deficit came in deeper than expected. Coming off of a -$122 billion in December, the expectation for January was -$116 billion. The actual number came in at -$153 billion.
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THIS WEEK:
Focus of the week: Jobs & Unemployment numbers. The February report is expected to show 160,000, with the Unemployment rate remaining at 4.0%.
Calendar: ISM manufacturing index (Mon); ISM services index, factory orders, ADP employment report (Wed); the 2nd read on the trade deficit, jobless claims (Thu); and the new Jobs & Unemployment numbers (Fri).
Earnings: This latest Earnings Season is just about over. Some of the companies reporting this week: Broadcom, Costco, CrowdStrike, Kroger, and Target.