M Notes: Mon, 3-23

LAST WEEK:

Markets:  Iran.  Trump.   The price of Oil.  Markets were down for the 4th week in a row. 

S&P roller coaster last week:  Up a lot, Up, Down significantly, Down, and Down significantly.  

Fed Balance Sheet:  $6.65 Trillion.  

Fed Meeting:   Second Fed meeting of the year (out of eight).  No interest rate change.  The Fed Chair’s press conference brought an interesting piece of news.  Jerome Powell reminded everyone that he actually has two end-of-term dates.  His Fed Chair position ends on May 15th.  His Board of Governors seat ends on January 31, 2028.   What complicates things is the DOJ inquiry into cost renovation overruns of the Federal Reserve buildings and Powell’s Congressional testimony about them.  What further complicates things is Judge James Boasberg’s ruling against the DOJ’s subpoenas (the DOJ is appealing Boasberg’s ruling).  And what further complicates things is retiring Senator Tom Tillis’ (R-NC) very public position that he will not vote to advance any Fed nominees until the DOJ’s probe against Powell has been removed.  Which means:  there might be a delay in confirming Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair.  Powell has stated he will remain as Fed Chair until Warsh has been confirmed (even after May 15th), which is generally considered normal procedure.  But then Powell said he won’t leave the Board of Governors until the DOJ’s probe “is well and truly over with transparency and finality”.  Summary:  this is brass knuckled politics at its best/worst… from everyone involved.  

Housing:  Starts were up +7.2% in January, and were up +9.5% Y/Y.  New Home Sales were down -17.6% in January, and were down -11.3% Y/Y.  Two weeks ago, Existing Homes Sales were up +1.7% in January, but were down -1.4% Y/Y.  

Inflation:  Wholesale Inflation, the PPI, was up +0.7% in February.  It rose from +2.9% in January, up to +3.4% in February on a Y/Y basis.  Two weeks ago, the CPI remained at +2.4% Y/Y; while the PCE was up +2.8% Y/Y (down a tick).  

Metals:  Gold finished the week at $4,575.  Silver finished the week at $70.

National Debt:  $39.02 Trillion.   

Oil:  The price of a barrel of Oil is up 70% Y/Y, as of last Friday.  

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THIS WEEK:

Focus of the week:  Iran.   Trump.  Oil.  Rinse and repeat.  

Calendar:   New Home Sales (Tue); and Durable Goods Orders (Wed).

* The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.    The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks.  The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System.  Yahoo! Finance, the Wall Street Journal, Investor’s Business Daily and Barron’s are several of the sources used for financial information. 

* The National Debt figure comes from usdebtclock.org.   

* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.  Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.  You cannot invest directly in an index.   Past performance does not guarantee future results. No strategy can assure a profit or protect against a loss.  Investments in the securities markets involve risk, such as loss of your principal.