M Notes: Mon, 2-24

	Week Close: 2-21-25	+ (-)	%
Dow	43,428	-1,118	-2.5%
S&P	6,013	-102	-1.7%
Nasdaq	19,524	-503	-2.5%
10-year	4.43	-0.05	-1.1%
Oil	70.25	-0.49	-0.7%

LAST WEEK:

Markets:  They are still adjusting to the new Administration.   The week was steady, until last Friday’s selloff.  

S&P roller coaster last week:  Holiday, Up, Up, Down, and Down significantly.

Fed Balance Sheet:  $6.682 Trillion.  

Fed Minutes:   Key take away:  Inflation needs to come down more before the Fed cuts their interest rate.  It seems their focus is watching what the impact of changes to trade and immigration policy have on our Economy.  

Housing:  Starts dropped -9.8% in January and were down -0.7% Y/Y.  Existing home sales dropped -4.9% in January, but were up +2.0% Y/Y.  

Jobless claims:  The weekly number came in at 219,000.  The four-week average came in at 215,000.

National Debt:  $36.520 Trillion.  

Tariffs:  Nissan’s CEO said that if 25% Tariffs on Autos is really, that would cause them to potentially relocate their plant from Mexico to another location.  But he didn’t say it would be in the US.  

Treasury Department:  As a part of the DOGE audit, it’s been disclosed that the Treasury Department under the Biden Administration released untraceable payments  for over $4 Trillion.  The Treasury Access Symbol (TAS) is like the “memo” area on your checks.  It was left blank.  Meaning:   Taxpayers have no idea how over $4 Trillion was spent.  I’m reminded of the famous quote from Illinois Senator Everett Dirksen in the 1960’s:  “A Billion here, and a Billion there.  Pretty soon you’re talking about real money.”   Now it’s Trillion.  

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THIS WEEK:

Focus of the week:   Inflation (again).  The metric the Federal Reserve watches the most regarding Inflation is the Personal Consumption & Expenditures index (the PCE).  The January read is expected to rise from 0.3%, up a tick, to 0.4% M/M; and drop a tick from 2.6% down to 2.5% Y/Y.  

Calendar:   New home sales (Wed); durable goods orders, the second read on Q4 GDP, jobless claims (Thu); the first read on the trade deficit, and the PCE (Fri).

Earnings:  This latest Earnings Season is just about over.   Some of the companies reporting this week:  Allianz, AnheuserBusch InBev, Berkshire Hathaway, Home Depot, Intuit, Lowe’s, Nestle, NIVDIA, Royal Bank of Canada, Salesforce, and TJX.