M Notes: Mon, 2-23

LAST WEEK:

Markets:  U.S. Markets had a solid rebound last week.  

S&P roller coaster last week:  Holiday, Up, Up, Down, and Up.

Fed Balance Sheet:  $6.613 Trillion.  

Durable Goods:   Orders dropped a lot from +5.3% in November, down to -1.4% in December.  Orders were up +10.0% Y/Y.  

GDP:  The first read on Q4 GDP came in much lower than expected.  Coming off a strong +4.4% Q3 read, Q4 dropped… to only +1.4%.  

Holiday:  Markets were closed last Monday, in observance of President’s Day.  

Housing:  Starts were up +6.2% in December, and were down -7.3% Y/Y.  Two weeks ago, Existing Home Sales were down -8.4% in January, and were down -4.4% Y/Y.   

Inflation:  The PCE, the metric the Federal Reserve focuses on, rose +0.4% in December.  It climbed from +2.7% (November) up to +2.9% in December  on a Y/Y basis.  Two weeks ago, the CPI (Consumer Price Index) went down from 3.0% to 2.8% Y/Y. 

Metals:  Gold finished the week at $5,130.  Silver finished the week at $84.

National Debt:  $38.7 Trillion.   

Radio:  Last Monday Bill Wills and I chatted about:  Jobs, Inflation and a review of a Financial Conference I recently attended.  You can listen to it by going to Bill & Chris Podcasts within this website.  

Retail Sales:  The January Retail Sales were delayed.  

Tariffs:  The Supreme Court rejected, in a 6-3 decision released Friday morning, the Trump Administration’s legal basis for the Tariffs that have been put in place over the last year.   Key point:  the Court didn’t say Trump couldn’t issue Tariffs.  They ruled against the legal justification used for the majority of Tariffs levied.  Based on the Oral Arguments months ago, this did not come as a surprise.  Markets went higher on the News.  

Unfortunately, the Court did not address the result of their ruling:  refunds of Tariffs collected.  More legal battles are likely.

Trump has since issued a 15% Tariff on all foreign goods under a different legal justification.  

Trade Deficit:  December’s Trade Deficit was -$70 billion, significantly higher than the $55 billion consensus.  Exports were up +6.3%, while imports were down -2.6% Y/Y.  

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THIS WEEK:

Focus of the week:  Inflation.   The final component for Inflation this month comes on Friday when we get the Wholesale Inflation number.  The Producer Price Index (PPI) 

Calendar:   Factory orders (Mon); New Home Sales (Wed);  Durable Goods Orders (Thu); and the PPI (Fri).

Earnings:  Some of the companies reporting this week:  Allianz, Berkshire Hathaway, Home Depot, Intuit, Lowe’s, NVIDIA, Rolls Royce, and TJX. 

* The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.    The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks.  The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System.  Yahoo! Finance, the Wall Street Journal, Investor’s Business Daily and Barron’s are several of the sources used for financial information. 

* The National Debt figure comes from usdebtclock.org.   

* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.  Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.  You cannot invest directly in an index.   Past performance does not guarantee future results. No strategy can assure a profit or protect against a loss.  Investments in the securities markets involve risk, such as loss of your principal.