M Notes: Mon, 2-2

LAST WEEK:  

Markets:  Mixed Markets last week.  The S&P500 reached new highs, while the Dow30 and the Nasdaq dropped a touch.  But we start the year with a positive January.  

S&P roller coaster last week:  Up, Up, Flat, Down, and Down.

Durable Goods:   Orders in November blew out expectations.  Coming off -2.2% in October, the consensus was for +3.0%.  November came in at +5.3%.  The December number was delayed.  

Factory Orders:   Orders in November beat expectations.   Coming off -1.3% in October, the consensus was for +1.3%.  November came in at +2.7%.  

Fed Balance Sheet:  $6.588 Trillion. 

Fed Meeting:   As expected, the FOMC did not lower rates.  The Interest Rate they offer the banks remained at 3.50% - 3.75%.  Expectations are there will be two ¼ point cuts sometime in 2026.

Fed New Chair:   President Trump picked Kevin Warsh to be his Nominee for Fed Chair.  Warsh served as a Fed Governor from 2006-2011 (during the Global Financial Crisis).  He has been seen as a critic of the current Federal Reserve.  

Inflation:  The PPI (Wholesale Inflation) rose from +0.2% up to +0.5% in December.  It remained at +3.0% Y/Y.  

National Debt:  $38.685 Trillion.  

Trade Deficit:  The November Deficit was -$56.8 billion.  Expectations were for only -$44 billion.  Over the last year:  Imports were down -1.9%, while Exports were up +5.9%. 

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THIS WEEK:

Focus of the week:  it will come Friday morning.  Coming off of a 50,000 number in December, the January Jobs number is expected to come in around 65,000.  The U3 Unemployment number is expected to remain at 4.4%.   

Calendar:   ISM Manufacturing index (Mon); ISM Services index (Wed); the new Jobs and Unemployment numbers (Fri).

Earnings:  Some of the companies reporting this week:  Alphabet, Amazon, AMD, Amgen, Bristol Myers Squibb, ConocoPhillips, Disney, Eaton, Eli Lilly, Merck, Novartis, Palantir, PepsiCo, Pfizer, Philip Morris, Qualcomm, Shell, Toyota, and UBS.   

Metals:  Gold and Silver have done really well over the last 12 months.  But the last week or so has been very bumpy for them.  Which direction will they run this week?

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* The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.    The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks.  The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System.  Yahoo! Finance, the Wall Street Journal, Investor’s Business Daily and Barron’s are several of the sources used for financial information. 

* The National Debt figure comes from usdebtclock.org.   

* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.  Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.  You cannot invest directly in an index.   Past performance does not guarantee future results. No strategy can assure a profit or protect against a loss.  Investments in the securities markets involve risk, such as loss of your principal.