M Notes: Mon, 2-10

	Week Close: 2-7-25	+ (-)	%
Dow	44,303	-242	-0.5%
S&P	6,026	-15	-0.2%
Nasdaq	19,523	-104	-0.5%
10-year	4.50	-0.07	-1.5%
Oil	72.53	-2.07	-2.8%

LAST WEEK:

Markets:  They were down a touch last week, as Markets try to digest all the changes the Trump Administration has been bringing. 

S&P roller coaster last week:  Down, Up, Up, Up, and Down a lot.  

Factory orders: The November number was revised downward from -0.4%, down to -0.8%.  The December number came in at -0.9% (consensus was -0.6%).

Fed Balance Sheet:  $6.811 Trillion.  

ISM:   Mixed results.  The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing index rose from 49.3 in December, up to 50.9 in January (consensus was 49.5).  Their Services index dropped from 54.1 in December, down to 52.8 in January (consensus was 54.0).  But both numbers were above 50.  A number below 50 implies a contraction, while a number above 50 implies an expansion. 

Jobless claims:  The weekly number came in at 219,000.  The four-week average came in at 217,000.

Jobs:  The January Jobs number came in at 143,000 (consensus was for 168,000).  

National Debt:  $36.461 Trillion.  

Tariffs:  Less discussion about Tariffs this week, after the Canadian and Mexican Tariffs were delayed 30-days.  

Trade Deficit:  December’s Trade Deficit came in at -$98.4% (consensus was -96.8%).  In the last rolling 12 months, Exports were up +2.5%, while Imports were up +12.4%.  

Unemployment:  The January U3 Unemployment number moved down a tick from 4.1% down to 4.0%.  

 

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THIS WEEK:

Focus of the week:   Inflation.  We get updates on Consumer and Wholesale Inflation.  The Consumer Price Index is expected to remain at 2.9%, while the Producer Price Index is expected to drop to touch from 3.3% down to 3.2%.

Calendar:   CPI (Wed); PPI, jobless claims (Thu); industrial production, and retail sales (Fri).

Earnings:  Some of the companies reporting this week:  Airbnb, Applied Materials, BP, Cisco, Coca-Cola, CVS, Deere, DoorDash, Duke Energy, Gilead Sciences, Honda, L’Oréal, Marriott, McDonald’s, Shopify, Siemens, Sony, and Unilever.

Tariffs:  President Trump is expected to announce Tariffs on Steel being imported into our country today.