M Notes: Mon, 12-9
Week Close: 12-6-24 | + (-) | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow | 44,643 | -268 | -0.6% |
| S&P | 6,090 | +58 | +1.0% |
| Nasdaq | 19,860 | +642 | +3.3% |
| 10-year | 4.15 | -0.03 | -0.7% |
| Oil | 67.18 | -0.82 | -1.2% |
LAST WEEK:
Markets: They were mixed last week.
S&P roller coaster last week: Up, Up a touch, Up, Down, and Up.
Fed Balance Sheet: $6.896 Trillion (last week… down -$9 Billion). Reminder: their balance sheet was closer to $4 Trillion before the Pandemic.
Fed Beige Book: Overall economic activity rose slightly in most of the Fed’s 12 Districts. In the Cleveland District, business activity grew modestly in the latest timeframe. Demand for business services remains strong, but consumer spending still remains flat. And employment levels grew slightly in recent weeks.
ISM: The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing index beat expectations. Coming off of a 46.5 number in October, the consensus was for 47.6. The actual number came in higher at 48.4 for November. Manufacturing represents 30% of the U.S. economy. ISM’s Services index disappointed. Coming off of a 56.0 in October, the consensus was for a drop to 55.5. The actual number came in lower at 52.12 for November. Services represents 70% of the U.S. economy. ISM numbers above 50 suggest economic expansion, while numbers below 50 suggest contraction.
Jobless claims: The weekly number came in at 224,000. The four-week average came in at 218,000.
Jobs: Coming off of a 12,000 Jobs number in October, a rebound was expected. First, the prior number was revised from 12,000 up to 36,000 (a rare upward revision). The November consensus was for about 210,000 jobs; with the actual number beating expectations, coming in at 227,000.
National Debt: $36.066 Trillion (last week… up +$19 Billion).
Trade Deficit: Coming off of a Trade Deficit of -84 Billion in September, the October Trade Deficit dropped to just under -74 Billion.
Unemployment: The consensus was the November U3 Unemployment number (there are six different numbers) would go up a tick from 4.1% up to 4.2%. And that’s what happened.
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THIS WEEK:
Focus of the week: Inflation. We get the updates on Consumer Inflation (the CPI) and Wholesale Inflation (the PPI) this week. The CPI is expected to climb slightly from 2.6% up to 2.7%. The PPI is expected to move from 2.2% up to 2.6%.
Calendar: The CPI (Wed); the PPI, and jobless claims (Thu).
Earnings: Earnings season is mostly over. Some of the companies reporting this week: Adobe, Broadcom, Costco, and Oracle.