M Notes: Mon, 12-8

LAST WEEK:  

Markets:  Another solid week.  

S&P roller coaster last week:  Down, Up, Up, Up, and Up.  

Cyber Monday:   Consumers spent $14.2 billion last Monday, the biggest online shopping day of all time in the U.S.  

Factory Orders:  The October number was still delayed.   

Fed Balance Sheet:  $6.536 Trillion. 

Industrial production:  The September number was still delayed.  

Inflation:  The PCE (the metric the Fed focuses on) number for September, as expected, rose +0.4%.   On a Y/Y basis, the PCE rose from +2.8%, up to +3.0%.    

ISM:  The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing index missed the expected 49 rating, coming in at 48.2 for November.  As important as the number is, the trend is even more important.  A number above 50 points towards economic expansion, while a number below 50 points toward economic contraction.  The ISM’s Manufacturing index has been below 50 for nine consecutive months now.  Manufacturing represents 30% of the U.S. economy.  

ISM:   Their Services index is going the other direction.  It rose from 52.4 (October) up to 52.6 in November.  Services represent 70% of the U.S. economy, and have expanded ten of the last twelve months.  

Jobless Claims:  The weekly number came in at 191,000.  The four-week average came in at 215,000.

Jobs:  the ADP Private Payrolls Employment Report missed expectations.  Coming off of 42,000 jobs in October, consensus was for 20,000 new jobs.  The actual number showed a loss of -32,000 jobs. 

National Debt:  $38.093 Trillion.   

Trade Deficit:  The October number was still delayed.  

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THIS WEEK:

Focus of the week:  The final Fed Meeting of the year.  

Calendar:   The Fed Meeting Announcement, the Fed Chair’s press conference (Wed);  September’s Trade Deficit, November’s PPI, and Jobless Claims (Thu).  

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* The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.    The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks.  The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System.  Yahoo! Finance, the Wall Street Journal, Investor’s Business Daily and Barron’s are several of the sources used for financial information. 

* The National Debt figure comes from usdebtclock.org.   

* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.  Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.  You cannot invest directly in an index.   Past performance does not guarantee future results. No strategy can assure a profit or protect against a loss.  Investments in the securities markets involve risk, such as loss of your principal.