M Notes: Mon, 12-2
| Weekly Close 11-29-24 | + (-) | % | Nov% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dow | 44,911 | +615 | +1.4% | +7.5% |
S&P | 6,032 | +63 | +1.1% | +5.7% |
Nasdaq | 19,218 | +214 | +1.1% | +5.4% |
10-year | 4.18 | -0.23 | -5.2% | -2.3% |
Oil | 68.00 | -3.25 | -4.6% | -1.8% |
LAST WEEK:
Markets: New record highs for the Dow and S&P.
S&P roller coaster last week: Up, Up, Down, Holiday, and Up.
Durable goods orders: Coming off of a -0.8% September read, October was expected to come in at -0.4%, but actually came in at +0.2%.
Fed Balance Sheet: $6.905 Trillion (last week… down -$15 Billion). Reminder: their balance sheet was closer to $4 Trillion before the Pandemic.
Fed Minutes: Further interest rates cuts are still on the table, but a “gradual pace” is now expected.
GDP: The second read on Q3 GDP came in at +2.8%, as expected.
Holiday: US Markets were closed last Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday, and closed at 1pm on Black Friday.
Housing: Last week New home sales were down -17.3% in October and were down -9.4% Y/Y. Two weeks ago: Starts were down -3.1% in October and were down -4.0% Y/Y. Existing home sales were up +3.4% in October and were up +2.9% Y/Y.
Inflation: The Inflation metric the Fed watches the most is the Personal Consumption & Expenditures index (the PCE). It got updated last Wednesday. It rose, as expected, from 2.1% up to 2.3%.
Jobless claims: The weekly number came in at 213,000. The four-week average came in at 217,000.
National Debt: $36.047 Trillion (last week… up +$19 Billion).
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THIS WEEK:
Focus of the week: Jobs & Unemployment. We get the November numbers on Friday morning. Coming off of only 12,000 jobs (October), the consensus is for 200,000 jobs. The U3 Unemployment rate is expected to tick up from 4.1% to 4.2%
Calendar: ISM Manufacturing index (Mon); ADP’s employment report, the Fed’s Beige Book (Wed); the Trade Deficit, jobless claims (Thu); and the new Jobs and Unemployment numbers (Fri).
Earnings: Earnings season is mostly over. Some of the companies reporting this week: Hewlett Packard, Kroger, lululemon, Royal Bank of Canada, and Salesforce.