M Notes: Mon, 12-16

	Week Close: 12-13-24	+ (-)	%
Dow	43,828	-815	-1.8%
S&P	6,051	-39	-0.6%
Nasdaq	19,927	+67	+0.3%
10-year	4.40	+0.25	-6.0%
Oil	71.09	+3.91	+5.8%

LAST WEEK:

Markets:   They remain near, or at, record closes.  Just how far will the Trump Rally go?

S&P roller coaster last week:  Down, Down, Up a lot, Down, and Flat.

Fed Balance Sheet:  $6.898 Trillion (last week… up +$2 Billion).  Reminder: their balance sheet was closer to $4 Trillion before the Pandemic.  

Inflation:  Consumer Inflation (the Consumer Price Index) increased from 2.6% up to 2.7%, as expected.   Wholesale Inflation (the Producer Price Index) was expected to rise from 2.2% up to 2.6%.  The actual number came in much higher, at 3.0%.  I guess Inflation isn’t over yet.  

Jobless claims:  The weekly number came in at 242,000.  The four-week average came in at 2,000.

National Debt:  $36.086 Trillion (last week… up +$20 Billion).  

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THIS WEEK:

First Focus of the week:  The Final Fed Meeting of the year.  The FOMC meet eight times each year.  To end 2024, they will begin meeting tomorrow (Tuesday).  Their meeting statement will come out at 2pm, followed by the Fed Chair’s Press conference at 2:30pm.  The focus:   will they lower their interest rate at this meeting?  Inflation has been rising (a reason to cut), but the Fed had said they are willing to be patient.  It wouldn’t surprise me if they don’t cut at this meeting, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they lower their rate a ¼ point.

Second Focus of the week:  Inflation.   We get the final Personal Consumption & Expenditures index Friday morning.  The PCE is the Inflation metric the Federal Reserve watches the most.   Expectations are the Y/Y PCE will rise from 2.3% up to 2.5%.  The Core PCE on a Y/Y basis is expected to rise from 2.8% up to 2.9%.  As we all know, the Fed’s Inflation target is 2.0%.   

Calendar:   Retail sales, industrial production (Tue); Fed Meeting statement, Fed Chair Press conference, housing starts (Wed); the final read on Q3 GDP, existing home sales, jobless claims (Thu);  and the PCE (Fri).   

Earnings:  Earnings season is mostly over.  Some of the companies reporting this week:  Accenture, Carnival, Cintas, FedEx, Nike, and Paychex.