M Notes: Mon, 11-4
| Weekly Close 11-1-24 | + (-) | % | Sep % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dow | 42,052 | -62 | -0.1% | -1.3% |
S&P | 5,729 | -79 | -1.4% | -1.0% |
Nasdaq | 18,240 | -279 | -1.5% | +0.3% |
10-year | 4.39 | +0.15 | +3.5% | +12.6% |
Oil | 69.49 | -2.19 | -3.1% | +1.6% |
LAST WEEK:
Markets: One bad day took the S&P and Nasdaq lower last week.
S&P roller coaster last week: Up, Up, Down, Down significantly, and Up.
Fed Balance Sheet: $7.013 Trillion (last week… down -16 Billion). Reminder: their balance sheet was closer to $4 Trillion before the Pandemic.
GDP: The second read on Q3 GDP was revised downward from 3.0% to 2.8%.
Inflation: The Personal Consumption & Expenditure index is the Inflation metric the Federal Reserve focuses on. It dropped from 2.3% (revised slightly upward) to 2.1% Y/Y as expected.
ISM: The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing index dropped from 47.2 down to 46.5 (the expected consensus was 47.6). A number above 50 implies economic expansion, while a number below 50 implies contraction. Manufacturing represents 30% of the U.S. economy.
Jobless claims: The weekly number came in at 216,000. The four-week average came in at 236,000.
Jobs: The consensus for October was 125,000 jobs. The actual number came in at just 12,000. And the trend toward revising the previous numbers continued with the September jobs number being lowered from 254,000 down to 78,000 (that’s not a small revision).
National Debt: $35.243 Trillion (last week… up +$20 Billion).
Unemployment: The U3 (there are six unemployment numbers) Unemployment number remained at 4.1
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THIS WEEK:
Focus of the week: While the focus of the Nation will be the Election (I can’t wait until I don’t have to mute the political ads), economically the focus this week will be the Fed Meeting that starts Wednesday. The FOMC meeting statement will come out Thursday afternoon, followed by Chairman Powell’s press conference. The expectation is the Fed will cut their Interest Rate by 25 basis points (1/4 point). But the question is why? Their Inflation target as we all know is 2%. Their key Inflation metric is the PCE, which got updated last Thursday. It’s at 2.1%, which is pretty close to 2.0%. And Unemployment is still pretty low at 4.1%. Their two primary objectives are in good shape. Why does the Fed want to lower rates at this point, which will in effect stimulate the economy? Is the Fed sending us a warning message?
Calendar: Factory orders (Mon); Election Day, trade deficit, ISM services index (Tue); Fed Meeting statement, Fed Chair press conference, and jobless claims (Thu).
Earnings: Earnings season continues. Some of the companies reporting this week: Airbnb, ARM, Duke Energy, DuPont, Marriott, Qualcomm, Toyota, and Yum Brands.