M Notes: Mon, 11-2
| Week Close: 10-30-26 | + (-) | % | Oct% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dow | 52,215 | -445 | -0.9% | +1.7% |
| S&P | 7,580 | -44 | -0.6% | -0.9% |
| Nasdaq | 25,437 | -518 | -2.0% | -5.3% |
| R2000 | 2,812 | +35 | +1.3% | +0.5% |
| 10-year | 4.93 | -0.07 | -1.4% | -6.8% |
| Oil | 104.12 | +0.56 | +0.5% | +13.9% |
LAST WEEK:
Markets: Oil. AI. The Mid-Terms. Lots of Volatility. The Roller Coaster was very visible last week.
S&P roller coaster last week: Up a lot, Up, Up, Down, and Down significantly.
Durable Goods Orders: Went up +1.8% in September, and were up +9.9% Y/Y.
Fed Balance Sheet: $6.75 Trillion.
Fed Meeting: No rate change. The Fed’s funds interest rate remained at 3.75-4.00%. The vote was 10-2. Their final FOMC meeting of the year (there are eight each year) is scheduled for December 8-9.
GDP: The second read on Q3 GDP came in higher than expected (a good thing). The first read was +2.2%. Consensus for the second read was +3.1% (which is really good). The actual number came in at +3.4%. The economy, despite what we’re told in the media, is actually doing well.
Housing: New Home Sales were down -0.6% in September, and were down -5.3% Y/Y.
Inflation: The Personal Consumption & Expenditures index (the PCE) is the metric the Federal Reserve focuses on for Inflation. For September: the number was expected to come in a tick higher at 0.3%. It remained at 0.2%. As expected, the annual numbers rose from 3.4%, up to 3.6% Y/Y. Remember, Inflation is an “aggregate” thing. It adds up. The high Inflation we saw in the Biden years didn’t go away. It’s still there. 2020-2025: prices went up at least 25% (the aggregate thing). And the Inflation we’ve seen in the first two years of the new Trump years, has been added to it. We all know the Fed’s Inflation target is 2%. Compared to the 9% CPI number we saw four years ago, 3.6% Y/Y Inflation is not that bad.
Metals: Gold: $3,885. Silver: $49.
National Debt: $40.48 Trillion.
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THIS WEEK:
Focus of the week: The Mid-Term Elections.
Calendar: ISM Manufacturing index (Mon); Mid-Term Elections (Tue); Trade Deficit (Wed); and Jobs & Unemployment (Fri).
Earnings: Some of the companies reporting this week: Airbnb, Advanced Micro Devices, Amgen, Apple, Berkshire Hathaway, Conoco Phillips, Eaton, Ferrari, Marathon, Marriott, McDonald’s, Palantir, Parker Hannifin, Pfizer, Shopify, Sony, and Toyota.
* The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. Yahoo! Finance, the Wall Street Journal, Investor’s Business Daily and Barron’s are several of the sources used for financial information.
* The National Debt figure comes from usdebtclock.org.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance. Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. You cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results. No strategy can assure a profit or protect against a loss. Investments in the securities markets involve risk, such as loss of your principal.