M Notes: Mon, 10-13

LAST WEEK:  

Markets:  President Trump’s new Tariffs on China caused the Markets to tumble on Friday.  The S&P500 was up about 10 points on Friday morning (and +0.5% for the week).  But that changed shortly before 11am when the new China Tariff announcement was made.  At the close the S&P500 ended down -183 on Friday.

S&P roller coaster last week:  Up, Down, Up, Down, and Down Significantly.

Fed Balance Sheet:  $6.587 Trillion. 

Fed Minutes:   While most Fed Officials participating in the latest FMOC meeting felt their Interest Rate should be lowered, the real question was how many rate cuts were coming.  The vote was 10-9 for two more rate cuts this year (10 for two cuts, 9 for three cuts).  The Fed’s next FOMC meeting is October 28-29.  

Jobless claims:  No number was reported yet, due to the Government Shutdown.

National Debt:  $37.480 Trillion.  (It’s going up about $28-30 Billion/week.)

Shutdown:  It continues.   A clean Continuing Resolution remains on the table.  Meaning:  no policy changes, just a continuation of existing funding, until a deal can be reached.  House Republicans passed that weeks ago.   The hold up has been in the Senate.  Those voting (multiple times) for the Continuing Resolution… 52 Republicans, 2 Democrats, 1 Independent.  Those voting (multiple times) against the Continuing Resolution… 43 Democrats, 1 Republican, 1 Independent.    

Trade Deficit:  No number was reported yet, due to the Government Shutdown.

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THIS WEEK:

Focus of the week:  Normally it would be Inflation.  But with the Government Shutdown continuing, the Consumer Inflation (the CPI) and Wholesale Inflation (the PPI) updates will be delayed.  Instead, will the new Trump Tariffs on China be a one-day anomaly, or will this be the beginning of a correction?  This week’s trend… will give us some indication.

Calendar:   PPI, Retail Sales, Jobless Claims (Thu); Industrial Production, Housing Starts (Fri).

Earnings:  A new Earning Season begins this week.  Some of the companies reporting:  Abbott Labs, American Express, BlackRock, Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Johnson & Johnson, Morgan Stanley, PNC, Progressive, Taiwan Semi, Volvo, and Wells Fargo.

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* The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.    The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks.  The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System.  Yahoo! Finance, the Wall Street Journal, Investor’s Business Daily and Barron’s are several of the sources used for financial information. 

* The National Debt figure comes from usdebtclock.org.   

* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.  Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.  You cannot invest directly in an index.   Past performance does not guarantee future results. No strategy can assure a profit or protect against a loss.  Investments in the securities markets involve risk, such as loss of your principal.