M Notes: Mon, 1-13

	Week Close: 1-10-25	+ (-)	%
Dow	41,938	-794	-1.9%
S&P	5,827	-115	-1.9%
Nasdaq	19,162	-460	-2.3%
10-year	4.77	+0.17	+3.7%
Oil	76.57	+2.54	+3.4%

LAST WEEK:

Markets:  A surprise Jobs number sent Markets into a tailspin on Friday.  Why?  It gives the Federal Reserve a reason to Not lower their interest rate at their next meeting the end of January.  

S&P roller coaster last week:  Up, Down a lot, Up, Closed, and Down significantly.

Carter:   Markets were closed last Thursday, in observance of President Carter’s funeral.  

Fed Balance Sheet:  $6.854 Trillion.  

Fed Minutes:   The biggest take-away was the Fed’s concern the new Administration’s policies will have on Inflation.  Fed Officials indicated they might move more slowly on cutting their Interest rate further due to the uncertainty.  

ISM:  Last week the Institute for Supply Management’s Service index moved from 52.1 up to 54.1 (beating expectations of a 53.2 rating).   Two weeks ago, the ISM Manufacturing index moved from a rating of 48.4 in November, up to 49.3 in December (beating expectations of a 48.5 rating).  Numbers below 50 imply a contraction, while numbers above 50 imply an expansion.

Jobless claims:  The weekly number came in at 201,000.  The four-week average came in at 213,000.

Jobs:  First, the November Jobs number was revised lower from 227,000 down to 212,000.  The consensus for the December Jobs number was for 150,000; with the actual number blowing out the expectations coming in at 256,000.

National Debt:  $36.345 Trillion.  

Trade Deficit:  In November the Trade Deficit was $78.2 Billion.  In the last rolling 12-months, (ending in November) Exports are up +6.6%, while Imports are up +9.4%.  

Unemployment:  The U3 Unemployment rate dropped a tick from 4.2% down to 4.1%.

 ------------------------------

THIS WEEK:

Focus of the week:  Inflation.   The Wholesale Inflation number (the PPI) gets updated Tuesday morning.  It’s expected to move from 3.0% up to 3.3%.  The Consumer Inflation number (the CPI) gets updated Wednesday morning.  It’s expected to rise from 2.7% up to 2.9%.  

Calendar:  The PPI (Tue); the CPI, the Beige Book (Wed); retail sales, jobless claims (Thu); housing starts, and industrial production (Fri).