M Notes: Mon, 1-12

LAST WEEK:

Markets:  A nice start to the new trading year. 

S&P roller coaster last week:  Up, Up, Down, Flat, and Up. 

Factory Orders:   They were up +0.2% in November, were down -1.3% in December.   

Fed Balance Sheet:  $6.574 Trillion.  

Housing:  Starts dropped -4.6% in October, and were down -7.8% Y/Y.     

ISM:  The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Index dropped from 48.2 (November) down to 47.9 (December).   Their Services Index rose from 52.6 (November) to 54.4 (December).  Manufacturing represents 30% of the Economy, and is Contracting.  Services represents 70% of the Economy and is Expanding. 

Jobs:  Coming off of a low 64,000 jobs number in November, the December jobs number was even lower.  It came in at just 50,000. 

National Debt:  $38.569 Trillion.   

Trade Deficit:  It dropped to -$29.4 Billion in October.  That’s the lowest monthly Trade Deficit since 2009.  Exports rose +$7.8 Billion, while Imports declined -$11.0 Billion. 

Unemployment:  The U3 Unemployment number (there are six numbers) dropped from 4.6% (November) down to 4.4% (December). 

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THIS WEEK:

Focus of the week:  Inflation.   The Consumer Price Index (CPI… consumer inflation) is expected to drop a tick from 2.7% down to 2.6% Y/Y.  The Producer Price Index (PPI… wholesale inflation) is expected to remain at 2.7%.  

Calendar:   The CPI, New Home Sales (Tue); the PPI, Existing Home Sales, the Fed’s Beige Book (Wed);  ISM Services index, Factory Orders, ADP Employment report (Wed); Retail Sales (Thu); and Industrial Production (Fri).

Earnings:  A new earnings season gets underway.  Some of the companies reporting:  Bank of America, BlackRock, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, PNC, Taiwan Semi, and Wells Fargo.  

Radio:  This morning Bill and I discussed the Jobs Number from last week (including a WSJ story of local interest), the Fed and their Reno, and my Market Forecast for 2026.   Go to the top of the page, and click on Bill & Chris Podcasts.  

* The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.    The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks.  The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System.  Yahoo! Finance, the Wall Street Journal, Investor’s Business Daily and Barron’s are several of the sources used for financial information. 

* The National Debt figure comes from usdebtclock.org.   

* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.  Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.  You cannot invest directly in an index.   Past performance does not guarantee future results. No strategy can assure a profit or protect against a loss.  Investments in the securities markets involve risk, such as loss of your principal.