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M Notes:  Tue, 3-13 Thumbnail

M Notes: Tue, 3-13



Weekly Close:
3-10-2023
+ (-)
%
Dow
31,910
-1,481
-4.4%
S&P
3,862
-184
-4.5%
Nasdaq
11,139
-550
-4.7%
10-year
3.70
-0.26
-6.6%
Oil
76.68
-3.17
-4.0%


LAST WEEK:

Markets:  Inflation concerns, a hot jobs number, and a bank collapse hit Markets hard last week.

S&P roller coaster last week:  up a touch, down a lot, up a touch, down a lot, and down a lot.  

Bank collapse:  Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) went into receivership last Friday.  It’s been reported as the second largest bank failure in history.  It’s certainly the largest financial institution failure since the Great Recession in 2008.

Factory orders:  They were down -1.6% in January, but better than the -1.8% consensus.  Orders had been up +1.8% in December.

Fed Balance Sheet:   $8.342 trillion (up $2 billion).  

Fed Beige Book:  Overall the U.S. economy ticked up a touch in the beginning of the year.  The 4th District, the Cleveland District, contracted slightly.  There’s persistent softness in household and discretionary spending.  And higher interest rates have impacted vehicle and home sales.  

Fed Chair:  Jerome Powell indicated the Fed will continue to raise interest rates due to a stronger than hoped for economy and sticky inflation. 

Jobs:   Expectations were for 215,000 new jobs.   The number came in hot at 311,000.   

Jobless claims:  The weekly number came in at 211,000.  The four-week average remains at 197,000.

Radio:  Last Friday Bill & I discussed the Biden Administration’s new plan to tax unrealized capital gains.  Here’s the link:  https://parker-wealth.com/bill-and-chris-podcasts/bill-and-chris-fri-3-10.  You can normally hear Bill and I discuss Markets most Friday mornings at 6:38am, 7:38am, and 8:38am 1100 AM, WTAM. 

Trade deficit:  $68.3 billion.

Unemployment:  The U3 rate rose to 3.6%, higher than the expected 3.4%.  


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THIS WEEK:

Focus of the week:  Normally I would say the Inflation updates (consumer and wholesale) would be the focus.  But SVB’s collapse last week has become the clear focus this week.  SVB specialized in financing tech companies and startups.   It was the 16th largest bank in the U.S.  Was this just one institution, a one off?  Or is there a larger contagion?  

Earnings:  This season of data is winding down.  Some of the companies reporting this week:   Adobe, Dollar General, and FedEx. 

Economic calendar:  CPI (Tue); PPI, retail sales (Wed); housing starts, jobless claims (Thu); and industrial production (Fri).