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M Notes:    Tue, 11-2 Thumbnail

M Notes: Tue, 11-2




Week Close:
 10-30
+ (-)%Sep %
Dow26,502-1,834-6.5%-4.6%
S&P3,270-195-5.6%-2.8%
Nasdaq10,912-636-5.5%-5.5%


LAST WEEK:

Markets have worst week since March.   

The S&P roller coaster last week:  Down a lot, down, down a ton, up, and down.

Durable goods:   The prior month (August) came in at +0.4%.   The consensus for September’s results was +0.4% as well.  The actual number came in at a stunning +1.9%.  It was led by increases in aircraft, autos and metals.  Three months ago the YOY number was -12.7%.  It’s now down to just -1.9%.

England:   Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced this weekend England would be shut down for a month.  Maybe more.

GDP:  We know Q2 came in at an historic -31.4%.  Last week we got the first read on Q3… +33.1%.  The new forecast for our GDP in 2020 is -3.6% (the best of the G7).   

Housing New homes sales were down -3.5% in September but are still up an amazing +32.1% YOY. 

Jobless claims:  They came in better than expected at 751,000.  That’s the 2nd time below 800,000 and the 10th time in the last 12 weeks the number has been below 1,000,000.  

 

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THIS WEEK:

Focus of the week:  As I write this Markets are up and sustaining the gain.  After England’s announcement (shutdowns) I wasn’t sure Markets would be up today.  But the big news obviously is the Election is tomorrow.   It will have a clear impact, either way, on the economics of the country.  Over 93 million of us have already voted (I’m one of them… voted downtown on Friday).  

The Fed:  The FOMC meets for the seventh time (out of eight) Wednesday and Thursday.  The meeting statement will come out at 2:00p on Thursday, and the Fed Chair press conference will follow at 2:30p.  Normally they meet on a Tuesday/Wednesday schedule, but due to the election it’s a day later.

Earnings Season continues.  Some of the companies reporting this week:  Cedar Fair, Clorox, CVS, Emerson Electric, Hershey, Honda, Hyatt, Parker Hannifin, Subaru, Viacom, and Wendy’s.  

Indicator focus ISM manufacturing index (Mon); motor vehicle sales, factory orders (Tue); trade deficit, ISM services index (Wed); Fed meeting announcement, jobless claims (Thu); and the new jobs and unemployment numbers.