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M Notes:    Tue, 11-2 Thumbnail

M Notes: Tue, 11-2

Week Close:
+ (-)%Sep %


Markets have worst week since March.   

The S&P roller coaster last week:  Down a lot, down, down a ton, up, and down.

Durable goods:   The prior month (August) came in at +0.4%.   The consensus for September’s results was +0.4% as well.  The actual number came in at a stunning +1.9%.  It was led by increases in aircraft, autos and metals.  Three months ago the YOY number was -12.7%.  It’s now down to just -1.9%.

England:   Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced this weekend England would be shut down for a month.  Maybe more.

GDP:  We know Q2 came in at an historic -31.4%.  Last week we got the first read on Q3… +33.1%.  The new forecast for our GDP in 2020 is -3.6% (the best of the G7).   

Housing New homes sales were down -3.5% in September but are still up an amazing +32.1% YOY. 

Jobless claims:  They came in better than expected at 751,000.  That’s the 2nd time below 800,000 and the 10th time in the last 12 weeks the number has been below 1,000,000.  




Focus of the week:  As I write this Markets are up and sustaining the gain.  After England’s announcement (shutdowns) I wasn’t sure Markets would be up today.  But the big news obviously is the Election is tomorrow.   It will have a clear impact, either way, on the economics of the country.  Over 93 million of us have already voted (I’m one of them… voted downtown on Friday).  

The Fed:  The FOMC meets for the seventh time (out of eight) Wednesday and Thursday.  The meeting statement will come out at 2:00p on Thursday, and the Fed Chair press conference will follow at 2:30p.  Normally they meet on a Tuesday/Wednesday schedule, but due to the election it’s a day later.

Earnings Season continues.  Some of the companies reporting this week:  Cedar Fair, Clorox, CVS, Emerson Electric, Hershey, Honda, Hyatt, Parker Hannifin, Subaru, Viacom, and Wendy’s.  

Indicator focus ISM manufacturing index (Mon); motor vehicle sales, factory orders (Tue); trade deficit, ISM services index (Wed); Fed meeting announcement, jobless claims (Thu); and the new jobs and unemployment numbers.