|Week Close: |
Markets rebounded significantly last week. It appears that we’re looking at divided government. Joe Biden has been named President-Elect. It looks like Republicans will control the Senate (pending two run-offs on January 5th), and the House will narrowly be controlled by Democrats. Divided government. Markets really like divided government. Significant changes generally don’t get done. Simply put… not much will take place. It’s predictable. And that’s allows Markets to focus on corporate profits, not policy coming out of Washington.
The S&P roller coaster last week: up, up a lot, up a lot, up a lot, and down a touch.
Unemployment: It improved to 6.9% (from 7.9%). Expectations were for 7.7%, so this was a major beat.
Jobs: The number beat expectations, coming in at 638,000.
Factory orders: September orders were up +1.1%, a touch better than consensus.
ISM: The October manufacturing index increased up to 59.3. The services index decreased a touch to 56.6. The key number is 50. Over 50 suggests expansion.
Jobless claims: They came in once again at 751,000. That’s the 3rd time below 800,000 and the 11th time in the last 13 weeks the number has been below 1,000,000.
Focus of the week: We get a couple of inflation numbers this week. About ten days ago we got the revised PCE number. This is the number the Fed watches and it came in at 1.4%. We’ll get the CPI (consumer) and the PPI (wholesale) updates towards the end of the week.
Earnings Season continues. Some of the companies reporting this week: Cisco, Disney, and McDonald’s.
Indicator focus: CPI, jobless claims (Thu); and the PPI (Fri).