M Notes: Mon, 9-30

LAST WEEK:

Markets:  They were up a touch last week.  

S&P roller coaster last week:  Up, Up, Down, Up, and Down.  

Durable goods:   The consensus for August was new Orders for Durable Goods would be down -2.7%.  But that actual number saw them remain unchanged.

Fed Balance Sheet:  $7.080 Trillion (last week… down -$ 29 Billion).  Reminder: their balance sheet was closer to $4 Trillion before the Pandemic.  

GDP:  Q2 GDP remained at 3.0% in the final revision.

Housing:   New home sales were down -4.7% in August but were up +9.8% Y/Y.  Two weeks ago:  Existing home sales were down -2.5% in August and were down -4.2% Y/Y.  Housing Starts were up +9.6% in August and were up +3.9% Y/Y.   

Inflation:  The metric the Federal Reserve watches the most is the Personal Consumption & Expenditures Index.  The August PCE went up +0.1%, and dropped from +2.5% down to +2.2% Y/Y.  Remember that while Inflation (measured by the PCE) has come down from +7.0% (June 2022), the impact on prices is cumulative.  That’s why we are seeing higher prices be sticky at the grocery store.  

 Jobless claims:  The weekly number came in at 218,000.  The four-week average came in at 225,000.

 National Debt:  $35.146 Trillion (last week… up +$19 Billion).  

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THIS WEEK:

Focus of the week:  It comes on Friday morning when we get the new Jobs & Unemployment numbers.  Last month we got 142,000 jobs (Aug).  This month we are expecting about 130,000 jobs (Sep).  The U3 Unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%.  

Calendar:   ISM manufacturing index (Tue); ADP employment report  (Wed); ISM services index, factory orders, jobless claims (Thu); and the new jobs & unemployment numbers (Fri).