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M Notes:  Mon, 9-18 Thumbnail

M Notes: Mon, 9-18




Week Close:
9-15-23
+ (-) %
Dow 34,618 +41 +0.1%
S&P 4,450 -7 -0.2%
Nasdaq 13,708 -53 -0.4%
10-year 4.34 +0.08 +1.9%
Oil 90.16 +2.93 +3.4%


LAST WEEK:

Markets:  They were mixed, but relatively flat last week.  Of interest to me is the slow upward progression of both the 10-Year and the price of WTI Oil.  It’s generally been a slow upward movement.  Kind of like a frog in a pot of cold water with a low heat setting underneath.  

S&P roller coaster last week:  Up, down, up a touch, up, and down a lot.  

Fed Balance Sheet:   $8.099 trillion (down -$2 billion).  Reminder: their balance sheet was closer to $4 trillion before the Pandemic. 

Inflation:  Consumer inflation (the CPI) rose from 3.2% up to 3.7% (a tick higher than consensus).   Wholesale inflation (the PPI) rose from 0.8% up to 1.6%.  

Jobless claims:  The weekly number came in at 220,000.  The four-week average came in at 224,000.

Radio:  Bill and I chatted about Apple’s new products, Arm’s IPO, and the UAW’s strike.  Here’s the link:  https://parker-wealth.com/bill-and-chris-podcasts/bill-and-chris-fri-9-15 .   You can hear Bill and I talk about Markets and the Economy most Friday mornings at 6:40am, 7:40am, and 8:40am on WTAM 1100 AM.  

Retail sales:  They rose +0.6% in August, and are up +2.5% YOY.   

 


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THIS WEEK:

Focus of the week:  The Fed Meeting.  The meeting starts tomorrow and culminates on Wednesday.  The expectation is the Fed will “pause” again and Not raise their interest rate this meeting.  The most recent Inflation data gives them cover to do pretty much anything they want to do.  Overall Inflation has risen the last two months, so if they want to raise rates, they can point to that.  But Core Inflation has been dropping, so if they don’t want to raise rates, they can point to that.  While the ol’ adage is still true (“Don’t Fight the Fed”), the Fed’s timing is not normally very good.  They absolutely missed it two summers ago when they refused to raise rates (“We’re not even thinking, about thinking, about raising interest rates…”).  And in an attempt to catch up, that led to historic increases.  So, their goal of a soft economic landing remains.  But their desire to slow things down (hence the higher rates) has been thwarted by a resilient steady growth in our Economy.  Possibly… the delayed result of all the stimulus that the Fed and Congress threw at the Pandemic.  Regardless, the Fed will speak Wednesday afternoon, and everyone will be listening.  

Economic calendar:  Housing starts (Tue); Fed meeting statement, Fed Chair press conference (Wed); existing home sales, and jobless claims (Thu).