M Notes: Mon, 9-11

LAST WEEK:  

Markets:  The S&P, the Dow, and the Nasdaq have each been down four of the last six weeks.  

S&P roller coaster last week:  Holiday, down, down, down, and up a touch. 

Factory orders:  Moved from +2.3% in June, to being down -2.1% in July (consensus was for -2.6%).  

Fed Balance Sheet:   $8.101 trillion (down -$20 billion).  Reminder: their balance sheet was closer to $4 trillion before the Pandemic. 

Fed Beige Book:  Growth was modest across the country in July and August.  In the Cleveland District growth was flat.  Consumer spending softened.  The demand for manufactured goods decreased slightly.  Freight activity, though weak, was stable.  And nonresidential construction activity increased.  The pressure on upward wages, costs, and prices continued.  And the flat conditions are expected to remain in the near term.  

ISM:  Their services index rose from 52.7 up to 54.5 (consensus was for 52.4).  A number above 50 implies an expansion of the economy, while a number below 50 implies a contraction.  

Jobless claims:  The weekly number came in at 216,000.  The four-week average came in at 229,000.

Radio:  Bill and I chatted about Student Loan repayments starting again.          Here’s the link:  https://parker-wealth.com/bill-and-chris-podcasts/bill-and-chris-fri-9-8 .  You can hear Bill and I talk about Markets and the Economy most Friday mornings at 6:40am, 7:40am, and 8:40am on WTAM 1100 AM.  

Trade deficit:  It came in at -65 billion in July. That was close to what it was in June.   

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THIS WEEK:

Focus of the week:  We turn once again to Inflation this week.  The Consumer Price Index (consumer) gets updated on Wednesday morning.   Expectations are for the CPI’s YOY number (thru August) to rise from 3.2% up to 3.6%.  The Producer Price Index (wholesale) gets updated on Thursday morning.  Expectations are for the PPI’s YOY number (thru August) to rise from 0.8% up to 1.3%.   How will the Federal Reserve react to the increases if they do indeed come?

Economic calendar:  The CPI (Wed); the PPI, retail sales, jobless claims (Thu); and industrial production (Fri).