M Notes: Mon, 8-1

	Wk Close: 7-29-22	+ (-)	%	June %
Dow	32,845	+945	+3.0%	+6.7%
S&P	4,130	+168	+4.2%	+9.1%
Nasdaq	12,391	+557	+4.7%	+12.3%
10-year	2.64	-0.12	-4.3%	-11.1%
Oil	98.62	+3.98	+4.2%	-6.8%

LAST WEEK:

Markets:  They moved significantly higher in July.

S&P roller coaster last week:  Up, down, significantly up, up, and up.

Durable goods:  They rose +1.9% in June.  The consensus was actually -0.4%.  Durable goods are up +10.9% YOY.  

Fed Balance Sheet:   $8.89 trillion.  

Fed Meeting:  The key point… they raised their rate from 1.5% up to 2.25%.  End of the year target… 3.5% to 3.75%.

GDP:  It was a big miss.  Expectations were for a +0.5% increase in Q2, but the number came in as a -0.9% decline. 

Housing:  New home sales were down -8.1% in June and are down -17.4% YOY.  

Inflation:  The Personal Consumption and Expenditures Index (the PCE) climbed from a 40-year high of 6.3% in May up to 6.8% in June.

Jobless claims:  The weekly number came in at 256,000.  The four-week average is 249,000.  

Radio:  I was out of town last Friday.  You can normally hear us most Friday mornings at 6:38a, 7:38a, and 8:38a on 1100AM.

 

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THIS WEEK:

Focus of the week:  It will come on Friday when the new jobs and unemployment numbers come out.  Expectations are for 250,000 new jobs and the U3 unemployment rate remaining at 3.6%.

Earnings:  Some of the companies reporting this week:  Amgen, Berkshire Hathaway, BP, Caterpillar, Clorox, CVS, DuPont, Eli Lilly, Goodyear, Honda, Kellogg’s, Marriott, Starbucks, Toyota, and Under Armour. 

Economic calendar:  ISM manufacturing index (Mon); ISM services index, factory orders, ADP employment report (Wed); international trade, jobless claims (Thu); and the latest jobs and unemployment numbers (Fri).