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M Notes:  Mon, 7-8 Thumbnail

M Notes: Mon, 7-8

Weekly close:  7-5-24+ (-)%







Markets:   July starts well.  

S&P roller coaster last week:  Up, Up, Up, Holiday, and Up.

Factory orders:   The April number was revised downward from +0.7% down to +0.4%.  Expectations were for the May number to come in at +0.2%.  The actual May number for factory orders came in at -0.5%.

Fed Balance Sheet:  $7.222 trillion (last week… down -$9 billion).  Reminder: their balance sheet was closer to $4 trillion before the Pandemic.  

Fed Minutes:  As Inflation has proven sticky, the FOMC has agreed they shouldn’t be in a hurry to cut their interest rate.  Their inflation target is still 2%.

ISM:  The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing index missed consensus.  Coming off a 48.7 number, expectations were the Manufacturing index would rise to 49.1.  But it actually dropped to 48.5.  Manufacturing represents 30% of the US economy.  ISM’s Services index was expected to drop from 53.8 down to 53.0.  It actually dropped to 48.8.  Services represents 70% of the US economy.  A number above 50 suggests an expansion to our economy.  A number below 50 suggests a contraction to our economy.  

Jobless claims:  The weekly number came in at 238,000.  The four-week average came in at 239,000.

Jobs:  The May Jobs report saw a revision:  272,000 jobs was revised down to 218,000.  The consensus for the June report was for 190,000 jobs.  The actual number came in at 206,000.

National Debt:  $34.887 Trillion (last week… up +$20 billion).  

Trade Deficit:  It came in at -$75.1 billion for May.  

Unemployment:  The U3 rate increased a tick from 4.0% up to 4.1%.  



Focus of the week:  Inflation.   While it’s a light week for economic data updates, we will get new Consumers Price Index and Producer Price Index info.  Consumer Inflation is expected to drop from 3.3% down to 3.1% Y/Y.  Wholesale Inflation is expected to rise a touch from 2.2% up to 2.3%.  

Calendar:  The CPI  (Thu); and the PPI (Fri).