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M Notes:  Mon, 7-12 Thumbnail

M Notes: Mon, 7-12



Weekly Close:
7-9-2021
+ (-)%
Dow
34,870
+84
+0.2%
S&P
4,369
+17
+0.4%
Nasdaq
14,702
+63
+0.4%
10-year
1.36
-0.07
-4.9%


LAST WEEK:  

Markets:  A big Friday helps the shortened week finish higher.  

The S&P roller coaster last week:  holiday, down, up, down, and up a lot.

Fed minutes:  They came out last Wednesday afternoon.  These minutes come in three weeks after a FOMC.   No surprises.  Here’s the recap:  the Fed’s interest rate remains at almost zero; while their language has changed a bit towards Asset Purchases, $120 Billion/month of Shazam money continues; their focus is still on Covid; they are full accommodative; and they still have an inflation goal of “moderately above 2%” (it’s significantly higher).   The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, over the last 18 months, has grown from $4.2 Trillion… to $8.1 Trillion. 

ISM:  Their services index number dropped from 64 to 60.1.  Context:  a number over 50 is considered an expansion.  Both the manufacturing index (updated last week) and the services index are just over 60.

Jobless claims:  The weekly number came in at 373,000.  It’s the fourth straight week under 400,000.  That four-week average is 375,000.

Radio:  Last week I gave Bill my list of the Top 5 economic stories for the first half of 2021.  Here’s the link:  https://parker-wealth.com/bill-and-chris-podcasts/bill-and-chris-fri-7-9.  Bill and I normally chat on Fridays at 6:38a, 7:38a, and 8:38a on 1100AM.  

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 THIS WEEK:

Focus of the week:  Inflation.  We get updates on wholesale (6.6%) and consumer inflation (5.0%) on Tuesday and Wednesday this week.  The Federal Reserve says inflation will be transitory (temporary).  Perhaps.

Earnings season:  It begins again this week.  Some of the companies reporting:  Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, PepsiCo, Progressive, and Wells Fargo. 

Indicator focus:  CPI (Tue); PPI (Wed); industrial production, jobless claims (Thu); and retail sales (Fri).