Markets: A big Friday helps the shortened week finish higher.
The S&P roller coaster last week: holiday, down, up, down, and up a lot.
Fed minutes: They came out last Wednesday afternoon. These minutes come in three weeks after a FOMC. No surprises. Here’s the recap: the Fed’s interest rate remains at almost zero; while their language has changed a bit towards Asset Purchases, $120 Billion/month of Shazam money continues; their focus is still on Covid; they are full accommodative; and they still have an inflation goal of “moderately above 2%” (it’s significantly higher). The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, over the last 18 months, has grown from $4.2 Trillion… to $8.1 Trillion.
ISM: Their services index number dropped from 64 to 60.1. Context: a number over 50 is considered an expansion. Both the manufacturing index (updated last week) and the services index are just over 60.
Jobless claims: The weekly number came in at 373,000. It’s the fourth straight week under 400,000. That four-week average is 375,000.
Radio: Last week I gave Bill my list of the Top 5 economic stories for the first half of 2021. Here’s the link: https://parker-wealth.com/bill-and-chris-podcasts/bill-and-chris-fri-7-9. Bill and I normally chat on Fridays at 6:38a, 7:38a, and 8:38a on 1100AM.
Focus of the week: Inflation. We get updates on wholesale (6.6%) and consumer inflation (5.0%) on Tuesday and Wednesday this week. The Federal Reserve says inflation will be transitory (temporary). Perhaps.
Earnings season: It begins again this week. Some of the companies reporting: Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, PepsiCo, Progressive, and Wells Fargo.
Indicator focus: CPI (Tue); PPI (Wed); industrial production, jobless claims (Thu); and retail sales (Fri).