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M Notes:  Mon, 7-1 Thumbnail

M Notes: Mon, 7-1

Week Close: 6-28-24 + (-) %May
Dow 39,119 -31 -0.1%+1.1%
S&P 5,460 -5 -0.1%+3.4%
Nasdaq 17,773 +44 +0.02%+6.0%
10-year 4.34 +0.08 +1.9%-3.6%
Oil 81.54 +0.81 +1.0%+5.6%


Markets:  June finished on a quiet note, but had a good month overall.  

S&P roller coaster last week:  Down, Up, Up, Up, and Down. 

Debate:  The debate between President Biden and former President Trump last Thursday had 51 million views watch on TV, and an additional 30 million viewers watched online.   

Durable goods orders:  Orders were up +0.1% in May.  But the April number was revised from +0.7% down to +0.2%.  Orders are -1.5% Y/Y.   

Fed Balance Sheet:  $7.231 trillion (last week… down -$22 billion).  Reminder: their balance sheet was closer to $4 trillion before the Pandemic.   

GDP:  In the final read on Q1 GDP, the measure went up a tick from +1.3% up to +1.4%. 

Housing:  New home sales were down -11.3% in May and are down -16.5% Y/Y.  Two weeks ago:  Housing Starts were down -5.5% in May and -19.3% Y/Y; and Existing homes were down -0.7% in May and were also down -2.8% Y/Y. 

Inflation:  The Inflation metric the Federal Reserve focuses on is the Personal Consumption & Expenditures index.  The PCE was flat in May, and dropped a tick from 2.7% down to 2.6% Y/Y.   

Jobless claims:  The weekly number came in at 233,000.  The four-week average came in at 236,000.

National Debt:  $34.867 Trillion (last week… up +$19 billion).  



Focus of the week:  Jobs and Unemployment.  On Friday we’re expecting to get 190,000 new Jobs.  And the Unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.0%. 

Holiday:  US Markets will be closed on Thursday in observance of the July 4th holiday. 

Calendar: ISM Manufacturing index (Mon); trade deficit, ADP employment report, jobless claims (Wed); Holiday (Thu); and Jobs & Unemployment (Fri).