Markets: They were up a touch in a shortened week.
The S&P roller coaster last week: holiday, down slightly, up slightly, down, and up.
Beige book: Nationally the economy expanded at a moderate pace. In the Cleveland District customer demand was up. Staffing levels went up modestly… too few workers for job openings. Prices for input costs (materials) was widespread. Consumer spending was up significantly, and the demand for freight services remains robust.
Holiday: It was only a four-day trading week due to the Memorial Day holiday on Monday.
ISM: Their Manufacturing index beat expectations. The index moved from 60.7 up to 61.2. Their Services index surprised as well, moving from 62.7 up to 64.0. Both are good news, but especially the Services index number. Over 50 is considered economic expansion.
Jobs: Last month (April) came in with 266,000 jobs. Expectations were for 645,000 jobs. The actual number came in at 559,000. While the number didn’t meet expectations, it’s still more than double the prior month.
Jobless claims: Consensus was for 400,000 claims. The actual weekly number came in at 385,000 (the first time below 400,000). Context: pre-Covid the weekly average was around 200,000. Message: we’re getting there.
Motor vehicle sales: The prior number (April) came in at 18.5 million. Expectations were for 17.5 million, with the actual number coming in at 17.0 million.
Radio: You can listen to us chat most Fridays at 6:38a, 7:38a, and 8:38a on 1100AM. Last Friday Bill & I discussed the week’s economic data, and asked an important question of the Federal Reserve. Here’s the link… https://parker-wealth.com/bill-and-chris-podcasts/bill-and-chris-fri-6-4.
Unemployment: Expectations were for us to see the number move from 6.1% down to 5.9%. The actual U3 number came in at 5.8%.
Focus of the week: The pipeline disruption has had mixed results so far today (as I write this). The Dow is up a fair amount, the S&P is flat, and the Nasdaq is down a fair amount. The focus this week will be on inflation numbers and the new retail sales number.
Earnings season continues. Some of the companies reporting this week: Alibaba, Cigna, Disney, Subaru, Toyota, Tyson Foods, and Wendy’s.
Indicator focus: CPI (Tue); PPI, jobless claims (Thu), retail sales and industrial production (Fri).