|Week Close: |
Markets: They basically recovered what they lost the prior week.
The S&P roller coaster last week: up a lot, up, down, up, and up.
Durable goods: Think refrigerators and washers/driers. Up +2.3% in May, and up +41.6% YOY.
GDP: This gets posted in three updates. The final read for Q1 came in unchanged… +6.4%.
Housing: Existing home sales were down -0.9% in May, and are up +44.6% YOY. New home sales were down -5.9% in May, and are up +9.2% YOY.
Inflation: There are three numbers we watch. Two weeks ago, we got the wholesale number… 6.6%. One week ago, we got the consumer inflation number… 5.0%. Last week we got the update on the metric the Fed watches… the PCE. It was updated last Friday and rose from 3.6% up to 3.9%. So far, the Fed continues to say it’s only a temporary situation and is effect ignoring the impacts. Inflation continues to run hot.
Infrastructure: Well, we got the bi-partisan photo-op. We’ve been told a $1.2 Trillion infrastructure deal is done. Half of this money is new spending and half is repurposing money appropriated for other things that’s not been spent yet. How much money is going to road and bridges? Less than 10%... $109 Billion. But the deal really isn’t done yet. First, Democrats have one way they want to pay for it, and Republicans have another. That key part isn’t done yet. Second, President Biden said that unless monies for what’s being called “human infrastructure” (social spending he wants to do) are approved, he won’t approve the bi-partisan infrastructure deal. How and if the deal gets done, and how Markets respond to it is still to be determined. The President has since recanted the two proposals must be signed at the same time. We’ll see.
Jobless claims: The weekly number came in at 411,000. The average for June is 396,000. Compare that to the January average… 875,000. We’re making good progress.
Radio: Last Friday Bill & I chatted about the inflation update and the infrastructure “deal”. Here’s the link… https://parker-wealth.com/bill-and-chris-podcasts/bill-and-chris-fri-6-25. You can listen to us chat most Fridays at 6:38a, 7:38a, and 8:38a on 1100AM. Next week Bill and I will not be on… due to the holiday weekend.
Focus of the week: Markets are mixed as I write this on Monday. The Dow is down, the S&P flat, and the Nasdaq is up. The focus this week come just before we start the holiday weekend when we get the updates on jobs and unemployment on Friday. Currently we are expecting 675,000 jobs, with the U3 unemployment rate moving from 5.8% down a tick to 5.7%.
Indicator focus: Consumer confidence (Tue); ISM manufacturing index, jobless claims (Thu); and updates on jobs and unemployment (Fri).