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M Notes:  Mon, 5-9 Thumbnail

M Notes: Mon, 5-9

Week Close: 5-6
+ (-) %
Dow 32,899 -78 -0.2%
S&P 4,123 -9 -0.2%
Nasdaq 12,145 -190 -1.5%
10-year 3.12 +0.18 +6.1%
Oil 109.77 +5.08 +4.9%


Markets:  May began with a very volatile week.  But for all the ups and downs last week the Dow and the S&P basically moved sideways.  

S&P roller coaster last week:  Up, up, significantly up, significantly down, and down.

10-year watch:  It cleared the 3% threshold.  Now the question is will it stay there?

Federal Reserve:  They increased their interest rate 50 basis points (1/2 point) last week.  And Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that rate will likely go up 50 basis points at their June meeting, and then again at their July meeting.  Markets shot up significantly on Wednesday, before dropping significantly Thursday.  The general consensus is the Fed badly missed their call on Inflation, reacting too slowly over the past year.  Remember their “transitory” comments?  Now the Fed is in catch up mode, attempting to clean up their mess with the hope they can provide a “soft landing” (aka… no recession).  

ISM:  Their Manufacturing Index dropped from 57.1 (Mar) to 55.4 (Apr).   Expectations were for 58.0.  Their Services Index dropped from 58.3 (Mar) to 57.1 (Apr).  Expectations were for 58.9.  Context:   a number over 50.0 is considered to be an expansion (as opposed to a contraction).  

Jobless claims:  The weekly number came in at 200,000.  The four-week average is 188,000.  

Jobs:  The consensus was for 400,000 jobs.  The actual number beat that number coming in at 428,000.

Radio:  Bill and I chatted about the latest Jobs and Unemployment results, the Federal Reserve, and what investors should focus on.  Here’s the link:  https://parker-wealth.com/bill-and-chris-podcasts/bill-and-chris-fri-5-6 .  You can normally hear us most Friday mornings at 6:38a, 7:38a, and 8:38a on 1100AM.

Unemployment:  The U3 remained at 3.6%.




Focus of the week:  The bumpy ride looks like it will continue this week.  The economic focus this week will come on Wednesday and Thursday when the Consumer and Wholesale Inflation numbers get updated.   Consumer inflation (the CPI) is expected to drop from 8.5% down to 8.1%.  Wholesale inflation (the PPI) is expected to drop from 11.2% down to 10.7%.   

Earnings:  Some of the companies reporting:   Disney, Hyatt, and Nissan. 

Indicator focus:  CPI (Wed); PPI, and jobless claims (Thu).