M Notes: Mon, 5-22

LAST WEEK:  

Markets:  They moved higher on speculation there would be a debt ceiling deal (lots of rhetoric, but no evidence of any policy compromises yet).   

S&P roller coaster last week:  up, down, up, up, and down a touch. 

Fed Balance Sheet:   $8.457 trillion (down $46 billion). 

Housing:  Starts were up +2.2% in April and are down -22.3% YOY.   Starts were up in the Midwest and West, but down in the Northeast and South.  Existing home sales were down -3.4% in April and are down -23.2% YOY.   Existing home sales fell in every region.  

Industrial production:  Up +0.5% in April (but adjusted to 0.0% when including revision to prior months).

Jobless claims:  The weekly number came in at 242,000.  The four-week average came in at 244,000.

Radio:  Bill and I chatted about the Debt Ceiling:  the problems, possible solutions, and do we need to worry?  Here’s the link…  https://parker-wealth.com/bill-and-chris-podcasts/bill-and-chris-fri-5-19-pt-1 .  You can hear Bill and I talk about Markets and the Economy most Friday mornings at 6:40am, 7:40am, and 8:40am on WTAM 1100 AM.  

Retail sales:  They were up +0.4% in April and are up +1.6% YOY.

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THIS WEEK:

Focus of the week:  While most weeks the focus would be on the Fed Minutes from their meeting three weeks ago, this week’s focus will be on Inflation.  The Inflation metric the Fed focuses on is the Personal Consumption & Expenditures Index (the PCE).  That update will come Friday morning.   Expectations are the number will tick up from 4.2% to 4.3% YOY. 

Earnings:  Some of the companies reporting this week:  Costco, Lowe’s, Intuit, Medtronic, Nvidia, and the Royal Bank of Canada.

Economic calendar:  New home sales (Tue); Fed meeting minutes (Wed); the second read on Q1 GDP, jobless claims (Thu); durable goods orders, the PCE (Fri).