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M Notes: Mon, 5-2 Thumbnail

M Notes: Mon, 5-2



Week Close:
5-2-22
+ (-)%Apr
%
Dow32,977-834-2.5%-4.9%
S&P4,132-140-3.3%-8.8%
Nasdaq12,335-504-3.9%-13.3%
10-year2.94+0.04+1.4%+26.2%
Oil104.69+2.94+2.9%+3.9%


LAST WEEK:  

Markets:  The swings in the Markets last week were pretty stunning.  April was a difficult month, and it didn’t finish well (last Friday was really bad).  

S&P roller coaster last week:  Up, down significantly, up slightly, up significantly, and down really significantly.  

10-year watch:  The move towards 3% continues.  The 10-year was up +26% in April. 

Durable goods:   Orders went up +0.8% in March (less than the expected +1.0) and are up +10.2 YOY.

GDP:  Coming off a +6.9% increase in Q4, we got the initial read (first of three) on Q1 GDP.  The consensus was for +1.1%, but that actual number missed expectations coming in at -1.4%.  

Housing:  New home sales went down -8.6% in March and are down -12.6% YOY.  

Inflation:  The metric the Federal Reserve tracks for Inflation is the PCE.  Last month is came in at 6.4%.  Expectations were the PCE would rise to 6.8%.  The actual number came in at 6.6%.  So, while it’s good that it came in lower than expectations, it still rose.   And, as with the other two inflation metrics, it remains at a 40-year high.  

Jobless claims:  The weekly number came in at 180,000.  The four-week average is 180,000.  

Radio:  Bill and I were off last Friday.  You can normally hear us most Friday mornings at 6:38a, 7:38a, and 8:38a on 1100AM.

 

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THIS WEEK:

Focus of the week:  It will come on Wednesday afternoon when we get the announcement from the Federal Reserve from their third meeting of the year.  That will be followed by a press conference from Jerome Powell.  Expectations are for a 50 basis points increase (1/2 point) in their interest rate (up to 0.75%).

Jobs and Unemployment:  The consensus is that there will be 400,000 new jobs and that the U3 unemployment number will stay at 3.6%.

Earnings:  Some of the companies reporting:   Anheuser-Busch InBev, Clorox, ConocoPhillips, CVS, DuPont, Eaton, Kellogg, Marathon, Marriott, Parker Hannifin, Starbucks, and Yum! Brands. 

Indicator focus:  ISM manufacturing index (Mon); the FOMC announcement, the Fed Chair’s press conference, the ADP employment report, the trade deficit (Wed); jobless claims (Thu); and the April Jobs and Unemployment numbers (Fri).