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M Notes: Mon, 4-29 Thumbnail

M Notes: Mon, 4-29

Week Close:
+ (-)%


Markets:  Earnings reports last week help Markets end a 3-4 week slide. 

S&P roller coaster last week:  Up, Up a lot, Up a tick, Down, and Up a lot.

Durable Goods Orders:  They rose +2.6% in March and are up +1.3% Y/Y.

Fed Balance Sheet:  $7.402 trillion (last week… down -$4 billion).  Reminder: their balance sheet was closer to $4 trillion before the Pandemic.  

GDP:  We got the first read on Q1’s GDP, and it’s not what we expected.  The consensus was for +2.5% growth, but the actual number came in at +1.6%.  Markets didn’t like that number much Thursday.  

Housing:  New Home Sales were up +8.8% in March and are up +8.3% Y/Y.  Two weeks ago:   Starts were down -14.7% in March and were also down -4.3% Y/Y.  Existing homes sale were down -4.3% in March and were also down -3.7% Y/Y.  

Inflation:  The Personal Consumption & Expenditures Index (the PCE) was updated on Friday.  This is the Inflation metric the Federal Reserve pays the most attention to.   M/M Inflation rose from +0.3% up to +0.5% in March.  But… Inflation grew from +2.5% up to +2.7% Y/Y (higher than expected).  

Jobless claims:  The weekly number came in at 207,000.  The four-week average came in at 213,000.

National Debt:  $34.694 Trillion.  (source: usdebtclock.org)

Radio:  In the Fall of 2008, in the midst of some real Market uncertainty, Bill Wills invited me to be on his show on News Radio WTAM 1100 on a Friday morning.  And I had the Privilege to be a contributor ever since.  I’ve decided to step back a bit, but I am so Grateful to have shared Friday mornings with Bill for over 15 years.  And while I may be on occasionally moving forward, it was an Honor to be a regular on Bill’s show.



Focus of the week:   The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee meets for the third time of the year tomorrow and Wednesday.  At 2pm Wednesday afternoon we will receive their Meeting Announcement, which will be followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference.  Will they give an indication of when (and maybe “if”) they might decrease their interest rate?

Earnings:  Some of the companies reporting this week:  Advanced Micro Devices, ADP, Airbus, Amazon, Amgen, Apple, Berkshire Hathaway, Cigna, Coca-Cola, Conoco Phillips, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, McDonald’s, Pfizer, Qualcomm, Shell, and Starbucks. 

Calendar:  Federal Reserve meeting statement, Fed Chair press conference, ADP employment report, the ISM Manufacturing index (Wed);  Trade Deficit, jobless claims (Thu); the new Jobs & Unemployment reports, and the ISM Services index (Fri).