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M Notes: Mon, 4-1 Thumbnail

M Notes: Mon, 4-1

Week Close:
+ (-)%Mar


Markets:  Two words describe Q1 for Markets:  Record Highs.   

S&P roller coaster last week:  Down, Down, Up a lot, Up a touch, and Holiday.

Durable goods orders:  They rose +1.4% in February and are up +2.6% YOY.

Fed Balance Sheet:  $7.485 trillion (last week… down -$29 billion).  Reminder: their balance sheet was closer to $4 trillion before the Pandemic. 

GDP:  The final read on Q4 GDP was revised up from +3.2% to +3.4%.

Holiday:  Stock Markets were closed on Friday in observance of Good Friday. 

Housing:  Last week New Home sales were down -0.3% in February but are up +5.9% YOY.  Two weeks ago:  Starts were up +10.7% in February and are up +5.9% YOY; Existing home sales were up +9.5 % in February but are down -3.3% YOY. 

Inflation:  The Inflation measure the Federal Reserve watches the most closely is the PCE.  In the February read for the Personal Consumption & Expenditures index, it was up +0.3% for February, and up +2.5% YOY.   The PCE, the CPI, and the PPI… all three Inflation metrics trended higher last year.  If this becomes a trend it may cause the Federal Reserve to delay lowering their interest rate.

Jobless claims:  The weekly number came in at 210,000.  The four-week average came in at 211,000.

Radio:  Last week Bill & I chatted about Q1 Markets, Inflation update, and Easter spending.  Here’s the link: https://parker-wealth.com/bill-and-chris-podcasts/bill-and-chris-fri-3-29.  Normally, you can hear Bill and I talk about Markets and the Economy most Friday mornings at 6:40am, 7:40am, and 8:40am on WTAM 1100 AM. 



Focus of the week:   It will come on Friday morning when we get the new Jobs and Unemployment numbers.  Coming off of 275,000 jobs in February, the expectation is for 200,000 new Jobs.   The Unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.9%.  

Calendar:  ISM’s Manufacturing index (Mon); factory orders (Tue); ISM’s Services index, ADP employment report, OPEC meeting (Wed); trade deficit, jobless claims (Thu), and the new Jobs and Unemployment reports (Fri).