M Notes: Mon, 11-20

LAST WEEK:

Markets:  They had another solid week.  

S&P roller coaster last week:  Up a touch, Up significantly, Up a touch, Up a touch, and UP a touch.

Fed Balance Sheet:  $7.815 trillion (down -$46 billion).  Reminder: their balance sheet was closer to $4 trillion before the Pandemic. 

Housing:  Starts were up 1.9% in October and are down -4.2% YOY.   

Industrial production:  It was down -0.6% (more than consensus) in October.

Inflation:  The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was unchanged in October and the YOY number dropped down to 3.2%.  Both were a “tenth” below expectations.  And the Markets went nuts (way up).  Why?  It feeds the hopes the Federal Reserve won’t need to raise their interest rate again.  The Producer Price Index (PPI) also went down, from 2.2% down to 1.3% (much lower than consensus).

Jobless claims:  The weekly number came in at 231,000.  The four-week average came in at 220,000.

Radio:  Bill and Chris chatted about Retail sales, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Thanksgiving, and Black Friday.    Here’s the link:  https://parker-wealth.com/bill-and-chris-podcasts/bill-and-chris-fri-11-17 .  You can hear Bill and I talk about Markets and the Economy most Friday mornings at 6:40am, 7:40am, and 8:40am on WTAM 1100 AM.  

Retail sales:  The prior read (September) was revised from +0.7% up to +0.9%.  The October number was expected to come in at -0.3%, but did better than that coming in at -0.1%.  Retail sales are up +2.5% YOY.

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THIS WEEK:

Focus of the week:  Thursday is the Thanksgiving holiday (U.S. Markets will be closed), and Friday is… well… Black Friday (the busiest shopping day of the year).  

Earnings Season is starting to wind down.  Some of the companies reporting this week:  Deere, Lowe’s, Medtronic, and NVIDIA. 

Economic calendar:  Existing home sales, FOMC minutes (Tue); durable goods orders, and jobless claims (Wed).