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M Notes:  Mon, 11-14 Thumbnail

M Notes: Mon, 11-14




Weekly Close:
11-11-2022
+ (-)%
Dow33,748+1,345+4.2%
S&P3,993+223+5.9%
Nasdaq11,323+848+8.1%
10-year3.81-0.33-8.0%
Oil88.99-3.53-3.8%


LAST WEEK:

Markets:  An unexpected decrease in inflation perked up Markets.    

S&P roller coaster last week:  Up, up, down significantly, up significantly, and up. 

Fed Balance Sheet:   $8.679 trillion (up $2 billion).   

Inflation:  The Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped much more than expected last Thursday.  And it led to a big rally.  But a word of caution:  one good month does not establish a trend.  The next update for the CPI is on December 13th.  That happens to the be first day of the next FOMC meeting (the last Fed meeting of the year).  We won’t know how the Fed will react until then.  But a change in Fed direction (less rate increases) could lead to a Santa Claus rally.  However, a continuation of the Fed’s hawkish tone could lead to the opposite.       

Jobless claims:  The weekly number came in at 225,000.  The four-week average is 219,000. 

Radio:  Two pieces this week.  First, Bill and I chatted about last week’s key Inflation update.  Here’s that link:  https://parker-wealth.com/bill-and-chris-podcasts/bill-and-chris-fri-11-11-part-one.  Second, we chatted about why Markets like political Gridlock.  Here’s that link:  https://parker-wealth.com/bill-and-chris-podcasts/bill-and-chris-fri-11-11-part-two.  You can normally hear Bill and I discuss Markets many Friday mornings at 6:38am, 7:38am, and 8:38am 1100 AM, WTAM. 


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THIS WEEK:

Focus of the week:  Wholesale inflation gets updated Tuesday morning.   Expectations are it will drop a touch from 8.5% down to 8.3%.   

Earnings:  Some of the companies reporting this week:  Cisco, Home Depot, Lowe’s, Target, and Walmart.  

Economic calendar:  The PPI (Tue); retail sales, industrial production (Wed); housing starts, jobless claims (Thu); and existing home sales (Fri).