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M Notes:  Mon, 10-4 Thumbnail

M Notes: Mon, 10-4

Weekly Close:
+ (-)%Sep %


Markets:  In a word… Down.  September was volatile and didn’t end well. 

The S&P roller coaster last week:  down, down significantly, up, down a lot, and up a lot.

Durable goods:  They were up +1.8% in August and are up +18% YOY.   Most recently, the gain in durable goods was led by commercial aircraft, metals, computers, and electronics.  

GDP:  We got the second read on Q2 GDP last week.  The first read was +6.6%, with the new read coming in at +6.7%.  The revisions were led by increases in consumer spending, exports, and inventories.  

Inflation:  Two weeks ago, we got the updates on wholesale and consumer inflation.  Wholesale inflation is at +8.3%.  Consumer inflation is at +5.3%.  But the metric the Federal Reserve watches is the PCE (the Personal Consumption and Expenditures Index).  The prior read was +4.2%.  It notched up last Friday to +4.3%.  For context… that’s the highest read on the PCE in over 30 years (1990).  

ISM the Institute for Supply Management gives us two updates each month.   The first of those, manufacturing, came in at 61.1.  That’s up from the 59.9 a month ago.  Context:   a number over 50 suggests the economy is expanding. 

Jobless claims:  The weekly number came in at 362,000.  The September average was 339,000.

Radio:  Bill and I chatted about the top 5 economic stories of Q3.   Here’s the link: https://parker-wealth.com/bill-and-chris-podcasts/bill-and-chris-fri-10-1.  You can normally hear us most Fridays at 6:38a, 7:38a, and 8:38a on 1100AM.  

Trade deficit:  the preliminary August number… $87.6 Billion more imports than exports.  




Focus of the week:  It will come on Friday morning when we get the latest jobs and unemployment numbers.   Last month the jobs number came in at 235,000.  The consensus is currently for 475,000 jobs.  The Unemployment rate is expected to drop a tick from 5.2% down to 5.1%.  

Indicator focus:  Factory orders (Mon); international trade (Tue); the ADP employment report (Wed); jobless claims (Thu); jobs and unemployment updates (Fri).